Calls we’re tracking, attributed and dated, plus the ones that have come true.

• Matt Smith — US crude oil exports June 2026 US crude oil exports fall below 5 million barrels per day in June 2026, as reported by EIA or equivalent official data covering that month. Said 8 Jun 2026 · Observed 31 Aug 2026
• Jim Masturzo — Strait of Hormuz crisis resolution The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains unresolved (i.e., no comprehensive diplomatic agreement or full normalization of shipping/military tensions is publicly announced) for at least several weeks after May 31, 2026, with no resolution by August 31, 2026. Said 31 May 2026 · Observed 31 Aug 2026
• Laura Shin — SEC "reg crypto" rules release The SEC officially releases/publishes its "reg crypto" rules (a formal regulatory framework for crypto) on or before 2026-08-27. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Observed 27 Aug 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — OpenAI Codex weekly Thursday release cadence OpenAI's Codex team publicly establishes a stable weekly release cadence with a larger release each Thursday, as evidenced by at least two consecutive Thursday releases announced or documented by OpenAI, by 2026-08-18. Said 18 May 2026 · Observed 18 Aug 2026
• Jon Finer — US-Iran nuclear deal within 60-day MOU timeline No comprehensive US-Iran nuclear deal (or equivalent binding agreement) is announced or concluded by August 17, 2026 (60 days after the episode date of June 18, 2026), consistent with Jon Finer's prediction that such a deal within the 60-day MOU window is implausible. Said 18 Jun 2026 · Observed 26 Aug 2026
• Luke Gromen — Physical world materially impacting financial markets By 2026-08-11, a significant real-world physical disruption (e.g., commodity supply shock, energy crisis, infrastructure failure, or geopolitical physical conflict) demonstrably causes a material adverse move in major financial markets (e.g., a 10%+ drawdown in a major equity index, a sharp spike in commodity prices, or a credit/liquidity crisis), attributable to physical-world constraints rather than purely financial/monetary factors. Said 11 Jun 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Warren Pies — Equal-weight S&P 500 index confirming cap-weighted new high The equal-weight S&P 500 index (e.g., RSP or S&P 500 Equal Weight Index) reaches a new all-time high, confirming the cap-weighted S&P 500's new high, on or before 2026-08-04. Said 4 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Nathan Labenz — Mandatory pre-release AI model testing policy By 2026-08-04, a mandatory pre-release AI model testing requirement is formally in place (e.g., enacted into law, signed executive order, or binding regulatory rule) in at least one major jurisdiction (e.g., US, EU, or UK). Said 4 Jun 2026 · Observed 14 Aug 2026
• Ross Taylor — Automated construction of high-quality evals like KernelBench By 2026-07-29, no publicly demonstrated system exists that can automatically construct a high-quality, widely recognized coding/ML benchmark comparable to KernelBench (i.e., no such automated eval pipeline has been published, released, or credibly reported in the research/industry community). Said 29 Jul 2025 · Observed 19 Aug 2026
• Jack Farley — Economic buffers exhaustion and deterioration By 2026-07-29 (approximately 2 months after the episode date), measurable economic buffers, specifically U.S. household savings rates, Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels, and business inventories, show significant depletion, AND at least one major economic indicator (e.g., GDP growth, consumer spending, or employment) shows notable deterioration relative to May 2026 levels. Said 29 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Nathan Lambert — Tulu/Trinity (AI2) post-training parity with DeepSeek, GLM, Qwen By 2026-07-27, AI2's Trinity (or Tulu) post-training system achieves benchmark parity (comparable scores on standard LLM evaluation benchmarks such as MMLU, MT-Bench, or equivalent) with DeepSeek, GLM, and Qwen models, as evidenced by a public release, technical report, or independent evaluation. Said 27 Jan 2026 · Observed 20 Aug 2026
• Andreas Steno Larsen — Global energy market supply balance By 2026-07-20 (approximately 7-8 weeks after 2026-05-25), there is observable evidence of a global energy supply crisis or significant supply imbalance, such as major price spikes, emergency government interventions, widespread shortages, or credible reporting of a supply crisis in global energy markets. Said 25 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Microsoft lower-cost open-source enterprise model release Microsoft publicly releases a lower-cost open-source model intended for enterprise use, as announced around June 19, 2026, within a few weeks of that date (by July 17, 2026). Said 19 Jun 2026 · Observed 26 Aug 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Claude Fable public availability return Claude Fable is publicly available (accessible to users) by the end of the week of 2026-06-29, i.e., by 2026-07-05. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Warren Pies — Oil market crisis timing (managed demand destruction ~5M bpd scenario) By June 30, 2026, the global oil market experiences a widely recognized supply crisis (e.g., sharp price spike, emergency stock drawdowns, or major supply shortage declarations) consistent with Warren Pies's prediction that a ~5M bpd demand destruction scenario would push the crisis point to May-June 2026. Said 4 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Marc Rowan — Apollo daily estimated values for IG private products Apollo Global Management provides daily estimated values for its investment grade private credit products by June 30, 2026, as publicly confirmed through an announcement, product update, or verifiable reporting. Said 27 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Greg Isenberg — Claude Fable low-effort tier pricing change On or after June 22nd, 2026, Claude Fable's low-effort tier switches to API pricing and is no longer included in the Anthropic Max account subscription, as stated by Greg Isenberg. Said 11 Jun 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Jim Bianco — Oil supply constraints from Strait closure By 2026-06-17, credible reports or market data confirm real oil supply constraints (e.g., significant price spikes, documented shortages, or major disruptions to oil delivery) attributable to the cumulative impact of the Strait of Hormuz (or relevant strait) being closed, as predicted by Jim Bianco. Said 20 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Dan Farah — UAP evidence declassification - next tranche release A new tranche of UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) declassified evidence is publicly released by the U.S. government or an authorized body by 2026-06-13, as part of a rolling declassification process. Said 14 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement, no new purchase program Within a few weeks of 2026-05-08 (by 2026-05-29), the U.S. government's strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement does NOT include a new program to actively purchase Bitcoin, and instead implements Trump's executive order by establishing a centralized cold-storage facility ("Fort Knox for crypto"), an audit framework, and a formal reserve asset designation, with no new BTC acquisition program announced. Said 8 May 2026 · Observed 21 Aug 2026
• David Hoffman — DRAM ETF reaching $10B AUM within 7 days of 2026-05-15 The DRAM ETF reaches $10 billion in assets under management by 2026-05-22, thereby beating IBIT's record for the fastest ETF to reach that milestone. Said 15 May 2026 · Observed 13 Aug 2026
• Karen Young — Kuwait and Qatar oil storage problems By 2026-03-18, producers Kuwait and/or Qatar publicly report or are reported to be facing storage capacity problems or supply disruption-related storage constraints. Said 4 Mar 2026 · Observed 20 Aug 2026
• Richard Pops — NIDA-sponsored Vivitrol comparative study publication A NIDA-sponsored study involving Vivitrol (naltrexone extended-release injectable) is published in a peer-reviewed journal on or before December 31, 2025, as referenced by Richard Pops. Said 12 Jun 2025 · Observed 26 Aug 2026

• Jack Farley — Manufacturing PMIs following ISM leading indicators lower By 2026-09-03 (approximately two months after the episode date of 2026-07-03), major manufacturing PMI readings (e.g., ISM Manufacturing PMI or global equivalents) will have declined, consistent with Jack Farley's claim that they follow ISM leading indicators lower with a two-month lag. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 3 Sep 2026
• Clay Bavor — Sierra engineering interviews AI-native component By 2026-09-04, every one of Sierra's engineering interviews includes a strong AI-native component, as stated by Clay Bavor or confirmed by Sierra's hiring/interview process documentation or reporting. Said 4 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 4 Sep 2026
• Karen Young — Iran crude oil exports decline Within six months of the episode date (by 2026-09-04), Iran's crude oil exports have dropped significantly compared to levels at the time of the episode (early March 2026), resulting in a measurably tighter global oil market, evidenced by a notable decline in Iranian export volumes (e.g., tracked by tanker-tracking firms or IEA/EIA data) and/or a corresponding tightening in global oil supply metrics. Said 4 Mar 2026 · Resolves by 4 Sep 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Grok 4.7 release xAI releases Grok 4.7 publicly (or announces it as ready/available) on or before 2026-09-10, approximately 4 weeks after the episode date of 2026-08-13. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 10 Sep 2026
• David Friedberg — Grok 4.7 model release xAI releases a model publicly identified as "Grok 4.7" (or equivalent versioning) on or before 2026-09-11 (approximately 4 weeks after the episode date of 2026-08-14). Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 11 Sep 2026
• Ed Yardeni — U.S. CPI monthly inflation release (August 2026) The next U.S. CPI monthly inflation report released after August 11, 2026 shows a month-over-month increase of approximately 0.29% (i.e., between 0.25% and 0.34%), and the release does not trigger a significant market shock (e.g., major equity index does not move more than 2% on the release day). Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 15 Sep 2026
• Neil Dutta — Fed "additional adjustments" easing-bias language removal The Federal Reserve removes the "additional adjustments" easing-bias language from its official policy statement by or at the September 2026 FOMC meeting (scheduled for September 16-17, 2026), as evidenced by the published FOMC statement no longer containing that phrase. Said 13 May 2026 · Resolves by 17 Sep 2026
• Catalyst Cooperative — UNC Angel Sue Lab Data Center Dashboard Release A publicly accessible dashboard of all data center projects, developed by Angel Sue's lab at UNC using methods that mimic proprietary datasets, is released by September 22, 2026 (end of meteorological summer 2026). Said 9 Apr 2026 · Resolves by 22 Sep 2026
• Donald Hoffman — Trace Research Institute launch The Trace Research Institute, announced by Donald Hoffman to pursue research on consciousness and the foundations of reality, is publicly launched (i.e., officially announced or operational) by the end of summer 2026 (September 22, 2026). Said 2 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 22 Sep 2026
• Immad Akhund — Mercury Command launch Mercury (the business banking company) officially launches a product called "Mercury Command" by the end of summer 2026 (on or before 2026-09-22). Said 21 May 2026 · Resolves by 22 Sep 2026
• Joseph Krause — Radical AI custom alloy synthesis tool full automation Radical AI's custom alloy synthesis tool is fully automated by the end of summer 2026 (on or before September 22, 2026), as confirmed by an official announcement, product release, or credible reporting. Said 17 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 22 Sep 2026
• Rick Rule — Aggregate asset price levels by end of summer 2026 A broad measure of aggregate asset prices (e.g., the S&P 500 index as a proxy) is lower at the end of summer 2026 (on or around September 22, 2026) than it was on June 25, 2026, the episode date. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 22 Sep 2026
• Greg Xethalis — US crypto market structure bill passage and presidential signing The US crypto market structure bill passes Congress AND is signed into law by the President by 2026-09-23 (within approximately 1-2 months of the episode date of 2026-07-23). Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Sep 2026
• Barry Knapp — US inflation readings ahead of September 2026 Fed meeting By the time of the Federal Reserve's September 2026 FOMC meeting, the available US inflation readings (e.g., CPI and/or PCE) show continued benign (low/declining) inflation, confirming that June 2026's low inflation print was not an aberration, specifically, that subsequent monthly inflation prints (July and/or August 2026) also show low or declining inflation consistent with June 2026's reading. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Brad Setser — Bank of Japan September rate decision and yen intervention test If the Bank of Japan does not raise interest rates at its September 2026 meeting, there is observable evidence (e.g., renewed yen weakness, market pressure, or explicit commentary from officials/analysts) that the yen intervention stance is being clearly tested or undermined. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Ed Yardeni — Fed rate hike in September 2026 The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points (a quarter point) at its September 2026 FOMC meeting. Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Eric Richfield — Gain Therapeutics GT02287 IND FDA clearance The FDA clears Gain Therapeutics' Investigational New Drug (IND) application for GT02287 by September 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026). Said 31 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Francis Hunt — Precious metals discount buying opportunity Within 3 months of the episode date (i.e., by 2026-09-30), gold and/or silver prices experience a notable pullback/dip of at least 5% from their level at the episode date, constituting a "discount window" buying opportunity as described by Francis Hunt. Said 30 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Jason Calacanis — X For You timeline account dominance reshuffle By Q3 2026 (end of September 2026), X's original content rewards program has demonstrably reshuffled which accounts dominate the For You timeline, evidenced by measurable decline in reach/prominence of repost-aggregator accounts and corresponding rise of original-content creators, as reported by credible analytics sources or X's own data. Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Jason Yanowitz — Clarity Act vote in September 2026 The U.S. Congress holds a floor vote on the Clarity Act (crypto market structure legislation) at some point during September 2026. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Jim Bianco — 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.5% The US 10-year Treasury note yield reaches or exceeds 5.5% by end of September 2026, conditional on the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates at its September 2026 meeting. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Joseph Wang — Equity lockup expirations causing market selling pressure By September 30, 2026, major equity lockup expirations (as anticipated by Joseph Wang in June 2026) have resulted in observable, significant selling pressure in equity markets, contributing to a documented market top, evidenced by a notable broad market index decline of at least 10% from a peak reached after June 17, 2026. Said 17 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Kyle Daigle — GitHub availability incident frequency GitHub's number of reported availability incidents/outages decreases month-over-month for each of the three months following June 2026 (i.e., July 2026 < June 2026, August 2026 < July 2026, and September 2026 < August 2026), as evidenced by GitHub's public status history or incident reports. Said 2 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Marc Andreessen — VC-backed company top 1% exit threshold exceeding $100B The top 1% exit threshold for VC-backed companies (i.e., the minimum valuation/exit value required to rank in the top 1% of VC-backed company exits) is reported to have surpassed $100 billion by September 2026, as evidenced by industry data, research reports, or credible financial news sources. Said 29 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Marc Rowan — Apollo daily estimated values covering entire credit business By September 30, 2026, Apollo Global Management has rolled out daily estimated values (DEVs) across the entirety of its credit business, as confirmed by company announcements, earnings calls, or official disclosures. Said 27 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Matt Smith — Oil market supply deficit June-August 2026 The global oil market shows large supply deficits (i.e., demand exceeding supply) during June, July, and August 2026, reversing the earlier surplus conditions, as reported by a major energy data source (e.g., IEA, EIA, OPEC, or equivalent). Said 8 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Anthropic first profitable quarter (Q2 2026) Anthropic reports or publicly confirms that Q2 2026 (April-June 2026) was its first-ever profitable quarter, with revenues exceeding total costs/expenses for that period. Said 24 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Anthropic Claude free-tier surprise usage reset Anthropic publicly announces a surprise reset of Claude's free-tier usage limits, following an extension of access to July 12, 2026, with the announcement occurring by the end of Q3 2026 (September 30, 2026). Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — OpenAI IPO readiness OpenAI has publicly announced or filed for an IPO, or has otherwise demonstrated it is ready to IPO (e.g., filed an S-1 or equivalent registration statement with the SEC), by September 30, 2026. Said 21 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Nick Damiano — Mogul title insurance joint venture launch Mogul's title insurance joint venture has officially launched (i.e., is operational or publicly announced as active) by September 30, 2026. Said 17 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — Anthropic first-ever profit in Q2 2026 Anthropic reports a profit of approximately $550 million in Q2 2026 (the quarter ending June 30, 2026), marking its first-ever profitable quarter. Said 12 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Satya Nadella — Microsoft Copilot super app unification Microsoft releases a unified "super app" that consolidates its Copilot experiences, including coding capabilities, into a single application, publicly announced or launched by the end of Q3 2026 (September 30, 2026). Said 31 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Tian Yang — Bank of Japan rate hike by September 2026 The Bank of Japan does NOT raise its policy interest rate at or before its September 2026 monetary policy meeting (i.e., the BoJ holds rates steady through September 2026). Said 2 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Tom Masiero — BitMine ETH purchase pace conditional on Clarity Act If the Clarity Act passes in September 2026, BitMine (Tom Masiero) publicly announces or demonstrates a change in the pace of its Ethereum purchases during September 2026 (e.g., slowing, pausing, or accelerating buys relative to prior pace). Said 24 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Vishal Garg — Better.com adjusted EVA break-even Better (Better Home & Finance Holding Company) achieves break-even or better on an adjusted EVA (Economic Value Added) basis by September 2026, as stated by CEO Vishal Garg. Said 29 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2026
• Brad Gerstner — Trump Accounts creation rollout All 50-70 million Trump Accounts (as described by Brad Gerstner) are created within 90 days of the episode date, i.e., by 2026-10-09. Said 11 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 9 Oct 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Micron Q4 2026 gross margin forecast Micron Technology reports gross margins of approximately 86% in its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings results, consistent with the forecast made by Micron executives. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 15 Oct 2026
• Thierry Bros — Rhine river levels decline over 8-10 weeks Rhine river water levels (and other Northwest European rivers) continue to fall or remain critically low for 8-10 weeks following August 6, 2026 (i.e., through approximately mid-October 2026), consistent with the pattern described by Thierry Bros, threatening supply chains. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 15 Oct 2026
• Harry Stebbings — Cursor as full GitHub workflow replacement By 2026-10-20, Cursor has publicly launched or announced a feature set that fully replaces the core GitHub workflow (e.g., pull requests, code review, branch management, CI/CD integration) such that it is widely recognized as a GitHub workflow replacement by credible tech media or Cursor's own official communications. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 20 Oct 2026
• Sebastian Mallaby — Top AI model leadership change By October 20, 2026, a different AI lab (other than whichever lab holds the top-ranked model position as of April 20, 2026) holds the #1 position on a widely recognized AI model benchmark leaderboard (e.g., LMSYS Chatbot Arena, MMLU, or equivalent). Said 20 Apr 2026 · Resolves by 20 Oct 2026
• Arthur Hayes — Oil price reaching $120/barrel The spot price of crude oil (Brent or WTI) reaches or exceeds $120 per barrel at any point within 3-4 months of the episode date, i.e., by 2026-10-22. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 22 Oct 2026
• David Friedberg — Anthropic IPO Anthropic completes an initial public offering (IPO) or otherwise goes public (e.g., via direct listing) in October 2026. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Harry Stebbings — Anthropic IPO before OpenAI Anthropic completes a public market debut (IPO or direct listing) by October 31, 2026, and does so before OpenAI goes public. Said 3 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Jason Calacanis — Anthropic IPO valuation Anthropic files for or completes an IPO in October 2026 seeking a valuation of $2-3 trillion, surpassing SpaceX's reported $1.7 trillion record valuation. Said 15 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Jason Calacanis — Anthropic IPO valuation at $3 trillion Anthropic's IPO prices at or above $3 trillion valuation (approximately 30x topline revenue), not the ~$2 trillion figure cited as the conservative estimate, by October 2026. Said 15 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Jason Lemkin — Salesforce Qualified/Agentforce product blend by Dreamforce By the time Dreamforce 2026 takes place, Salesforce has publicly merged or sufficiently integrated its Qualified and Agentforce products such that the two are no longer presented as distinct offerings requiring user differentiation, evidenced by official announcements, product pages, or Dreamforce keynote messaging. Said 6 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Javier Blas — Japanese oil imports June 2026 vs June 2025 Japanese oil imports in June 2026 are reported to be higher (in volume terms) than Japanese oil imports in June 2025, despite any Hormuz supply disruption during that period. Said 4 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Marc Faber — Gold price correction through September-October 2026 Gold's spot price is lower in September or October 2026 than it was at the time of the episode (around June 24, 2026), indicating a sustained corrective decline through that period, as predicted by Marc Faber. Said 24 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Nathan Lambert — US government downplaying Chinese open AI model By October 2026, a US government report or official press statement is published that downplays a Chinese open-source AI model as not a significant threat, despite that model being among the top-tier open models released by China (e.g., ranked ~6th or better among Chinese open models by capability benchmarks). Said 18 Dec 2025 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Nicholas Brooks — AI capex contribution to GDP U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2026 (July-September 2026) shows a measurable positive contribution from AI-related capital expenditure, as reported in official GDP release data (e.g., BEA advance or second estimate for Q3 2026). Said 26 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Tian Yang — Anthropic IPO attempt Anthropic files for or launches an IPO in October 2026 (i.e., submits an S-1 filing or begins public trading on a stock exchange by October 31, 2026). Said 2 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Oct 2026
• Chris O'Shea — Europe gas storage level entering winter 2026 European natural gas storage levels are at or below 75% capacity as of November 1, 2026 (the conventional start of the European winter gas-draw season), as reported by GIE AGSI or equivalent official European storage data. Said 22 Apr 2026 · Resolves by 1 Nov 2026
• Jason Yanowitz — DTCC blockchain/tokenization initiative launch The DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) publicly launches its blockchain/tokenization initiative in October 2026, as confirmed by an official announcement, press release, or credible news coverage of the launch. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 1 Nov 2026
• Jason Yanowitz — AI as major negative political issue in 2026 midterms By the time of the 2026 US midterm elections (November 2026), AI is a prominent and widely-discussed negative political issue nationwide, with major candidates, parties, or media coverage framing AI as harmful or problematic in the context of the midterm campaign. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 3 Nov 2026
• Robert Pape — US ability to open Strait of Hormuz by 2026 midterms The United States has NOT successfully reopened the Strait of Hormuz to normal commercial and military transit by the date of the 2026 US midterm elections (November 3, 2026). Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 3 Nov 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — Iran situation ongoing through U.S. midterms The Iran-related conflict, crisis, or military situation referenced by Ryan Sean Adams remains active and unresolved (i.e., has not concluded via ceasefire, peace deal, or decisive military end) through the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026. Said 21 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 3 Nov 2026
• Andrew Wilkinson — AI autonomously running basic businesses By November 2026, at least one credible, publicly documented example exists of an AI system autonomously operating a basic business (comparable in scope to Deep Personality) end-to-end, including tasks such as customer interaction, order/service fulfillment, and financial management, with minimal or no ongoing human intervention, as reported by a verifiable news source, company announcement, or industry publication. Said 4 May 2026 · Resolves by 4 Nov 2026
• Harry Stebbings — Open source models distilling Anthropic cyber capabilities By 2026-11-06, at least one publicly available open source model exists that has demonstrably distilled Anthropic's (Claude's) cyber/offensive security capabilities, and is documented as being fine-tunable by attackers for specific offensive tasks (e.g., via published research, security disclosures, or credible reporting). Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 6 Nov 2026
• Joel Braunold — US pressure on Israel to limit targeted assassinations By 2026-11-09 (90 days after the episode date), the US government has publicly or verifiably pressured Israel to refrain from carrying out targeted assassinations that do not involve imminent threats, evidenced by official statements, diplomatic communications, policy announcements, or credible reporting confirming such pressure was applied. Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 9 Nov 2026
• Kevin Roose — Enterprise device patching wave driven by AI vulnerability discoveries By 2026-11-15, credible industry reports, security advisories, or enterprise IT surveys document a notable increase in patch/firmware advisories for enterprise hardware (servers, switches, routers) attributable to AI-assisted vulnerability discovery, consistent with Kevin Roose's prediction of a patching/upgrade wave within 3-6 months of May 2026. Said 15 May 2026 · Resolves by 15 Nov 2026
• Jack Farley — Strait of Hormuz resolution / oil-driven inflationary crisis If the Strait of Hormuz situation is not resolved by 2026-11-20, a significant oil-driven inflationary crisis (e.g., a sharp sustained spike in global oil prices or a major disruption to oil supply attributed to the Strait of Hormuz) will be observable in global markets and economic data. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 20 Nov 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — Iran economic capitulation under sanctions pressure By 2026-11-21 (3+ months after episode date), Iran publicly signals a major capitulation moment attributable to economic pressure, such as agreeing to significant nuclear concessions, signing a new deal, or a senior official publicly acknowledging economic collapse as a driver of policy reversal. Said 21 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 21 Nov 2026
• Barry Knapp — Republicans losing the House in November 2026 midterms Republicans lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections, resulting in Democrats controlling the House. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Barry Knapp — Fed policy rebalancing under Chair Kevin Warsh The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, begins a formal policy rebalancing process (e.g., announces or implements a shift in its monetary policy framework or rate strategy consistent with a rebalancing) by November 30, 2026 (fall 2026). Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• David Woo — Russian military advance on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk Russian forces launch a documented military offensive aimed at capturing Kramatorsk and/or Sloviansk, with credible reports of active combat operations directed at either city, by November 30, 2026. Said 18 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• David Woo — Europe-China trade war outbreak By November 30, 2026, a significant escalation constituting a "real trade war" between the European Union and China has broken out, defined as both sides having imposed or formally announced retaliatory tariffs or major trade restrictions against each other (beyond pre-existing measures) in an escalating tit-for-tat exchange. Said 18 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• François Chollet — ARC-AGI-3 competition 90% threshold by November 2026 No competitor achieves a score of 90% or higher on ARC-AGI-3 within the official competition constraints by the time the competition ends in November 2026. Said 1 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Jack Farley — US Treasury market intervention preventing market decline in Q3-Q4 2026 The US Treasury continues active market-support interventions (e.g., buybacks, liquidity operations, or other stabilization measures) through the 2026 midterm election period, and major US equity indices (S&P 500) do NOT experience a peak-to-trough decline of 10% or more during September, October, or November 2026. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Jack Farley — Democrats winning the House in 2026 midterms Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections, flipping control of the chamber from Republicans. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Luke Gromen — Strait of Hormuz closure through fall 2026 The Strait of Hormuz remains closed (i.e., effectively shut to normal commercial shipping traffic) continuously from the episode date through at least the end of fall 2026 (November 30, 2026), as reported by credible news or maritime sources. Said 11 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Nathan Lambert — US company in top cluster of frontier open models By late November 2026, at least one US-based company (most likely Nvidia, Thinky, or Reflection) has released an open model that is widely recognized (e.g., via benchmark leaderboards such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, Open LLM Leaderboard, or equivalent) as being in the top cluster of frontier or near-frontier open-weight models, a position not held by a US company for a significant period prior. Said 22 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Robert Pape — Republican control of Congress after 2026 midterms After the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Republicans lose control of at least one chamber of Congress (the House of Representatives or the Senate, or both). Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Shayle Kann — US gas prices reaching $5/gallon The average US retail gasoline price reaches or exceeds $5.00 per gallon (as reported by EIA or a comparable national tracker) at any point on or before November 30, 2026. Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2026
• Satya Nadella — Autonomous AI agents doing significant overnight work on users' behalf By December 4, 2026, autonomous AI agents (e.g., Microsoft Copilot or similar "autopilot" systems) operating overnight on users' delegated authority are widely reported to be performing significant, substantive work on behalf of users, evidenced by mainstream product launches, major user adoption announcements, or credible third-party reporting confirming this as a common real-world experience. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 4 Dec 2026
• Skanda Amarnath — US labor market pickup / recession concerns re-emergence By 2026-12-05, if the US labor market has not shown a meaningful pickup (e.g., sustained improvement in payroll growth, unemployment rate, or hiring indicators), mainstream economic commentary and forecasters will have returned to prominently discussing recession risks ("left tail" scenarios). This is considered TRUE if major financial media, Fed communications, or consensus forecasts explicitly flag renewed recession concerns by that date, and FALSE if labor market conditions have visibly improved and recession talk remains muted. Said 5 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 5 Dec 2026
• Zvi Mowshowitz — Frontier AI capabilities (Fable/Mythos-level) available as open source By 2026-12-21, at least one open-source AI model with capabilities broadly comparable to Fable or Mythos (as assessed by public benchmarks or credible expert evaluations) is publicly and freely available for download/use. Said 21 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 21 Dec 2026
• Ryan Detrick — AI trade rotation signal, tech flat while healthcare/financials/comm services outperform By 2026-12-26 (approximately 6 months from the episode date), the S&P 500 Technology sector is flat or negative for the period from ~2026-06-26 onward, while at least two of the following three sectors, Healthcare, Financials, and Communication Services, have meaningfully outperformed the Technology sector over that same period, signaling (per Ryan Detrick's stated condition) that the AI trade is over. Said 26 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 26 Dec 2026
• Alex Kendall — Wayve supervised robo-taxi trials on Uber in London, Tokyo, and 10 other cities Wayve launches supervised robo-taxi trials on the Uber platform in London, Tokyo, and at least 10 additional cities by December 31, 2026. Said 15 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Alex Thorn — Clarity Act failure due to ethics provision If the Clarity Act fails to pass by end of 2026, the ethics provision is publicly identified (e.g., by legislators, journalists, or official statements) as the primary or most cited cause of its failure. Said 18 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Alex Thorn — Clarity Act signed into law The Clarity Act is signed into law by the President of the United States on or before December 31, 2026. Said 18 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Amjad Masad — Replit $1B annual revenue Replit reports or publicly confirms annual revenue of at least $1 billion (ARR or actual revenue) for the year 2026, as stated by CEO Amjad Masad on or before December 31, 2026. Said 7 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Andreas Steno Larsen — US 30-year Treasury yield reaching 6% The US 30-year Treasury bond yield closes at or above 6.00% on at least one trading day by end of 2026. Said 25 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Andreas Steno Larsen — Consumer semiconductor scarcity in H2 2026 By end of 2026, credible industry reports, analyst notes, or news coverage document a measurable shortage of semiconductors for consumer products (e.g., desktops, laptops, or consumer electronics) in H2 2026, attributed to chip manufacturers prioritizing high-margin AI chip production over consumer-grade chips. Said 25 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Andrew Bialecki — Business adoption of customer-facing AI agents By end of 2026, a majority (>50%) of businesses have deployed at least one customer-facing AI agent accessible via website, phone, email, or chat interface, as evidenced by industry surveys, market research reports, or credible analyst data published by December 31, 2026. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ben Carlson — S&P 500 year-end 2026 vs 2025 The S&P 500 index closes at a higher level on the last trading day of 2026 than it closed on the last trading day of 2025 (i.e., the 2026 year-end closing price exceeds the 2025 year-end closing price). Said 22 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Bernt Bornich — 1X Neo open platform / app store launch By end of 2026, 1X officially launches Neo as an open platform with a publicly available app store or SDK that allows third-party developers to build and deploy skills/models on the Neo robot. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Bernt Bornich — 1X Neo household robot full autonomy shipment 1X Technologies ships (i.e., delivers to customers) a version of the Neo household robot capable of full autonomy by end of 2026, as confirmed by an official 1X announcement, product release, or credible third-party reporting. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• BioCentury This Week Host — Arrowhead PCSK9/APOC3 siRNA regulatory submission Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals files at least one regulatory submission (e.g., NDA, BLA, or MAA) for its PCSK9 and/or APOC3 siRNA program(s) for cardiovascular risk reduction between July 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• BioCentury This Week Host — GSK/Ionis HBV candidate PDUFA date The FDA assigns and/or acts on a PDUFA date for the GSK and Ionis hepatitis B virus (HBV) candidate in H2 2026 (i.e., between 2026-07-01 and 2026-12-31), resulting in an approval decision or action by the FDA by 2026-12-31. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Brendan Foody — AI models capable of cloning Slack end-to-end By end of 2026, at least one publicly demonstrated AI model or system is shown to autonomously generate a functional, end-to-end clone of a Slack-like application (including real-time messaging, channels, user management, and integrations) with minimal human intervention, as evidenced by a credible public demo, research paper, or product release. Said 1 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Brent Donnelly — Fed rates unchanged through December 2026 given weak payrolls If the US non-farm payrolls print comes in at or near 28,000 and the unemployment rate is between 4.0% and 4.4%, the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged (no cuts or hikes) through December 2026, i.e., the Fed funds target rate as of December 31, 2026 is the same as it was at the time of that payrolls print. Said 8 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Brent Donnelly — Coordinated intervention in USD/JPY No coordinated central bank/government intervention in USD/JPY occurs by end of 2026 (i.e., no joint action by the US and Japan, or a broader G7/G20 coordinated effort, to move the USD/JPY exchange rate is publicly announced or confirmed). Said 8 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Cancer Research Horizons representative — SeeFurther additional therapeutic program announcements SeeFurther publicly announces at least one additional therapeutic program beyond those already disclosed as of the episode date (2026-08-14), with the announcement made on or before 2026-12-31. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Chamath Palihapitiya — Anthropic ARR reaching $100B by end of 2026 Anthropic's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) reaches or exceeds $100 billion by December 31, 2026, as reported by Anthropic, credible financial media, or verified leaks/filings. Said 24 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Conor Coleman — EURF investment count in 2026 The Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund (EURF), as represented by Conor Coleman, makes at least 3 additional investments during calendar year 2026 (i.e., by 2026-12-31). Said 10 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Dan Shipper — Gartner prediction: AI creates more jobs than it eliminates Gartner publicly predicts/argues that AI will create more jobs than it eliminates overall, even if short-term AI-driven layoffs begin in 2028, verifiable by finding a published Gartner report or statement making this specific claim. Said 26 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Dara Khosrowshahi — Uber robo-taxi pilot launch in London Uber launches at least one robo-taxi (autonomous vehicle) pilot program in London by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by an official Uber announcement, credible news report, or regulatory filing. Said 3 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• David Frankel — IPO market closure after 2026 The IPO market, having been open through the remainder of 2026, closes (i.e., IPO activity drops sharply or major IPOs are pulled/postponed due to unfavorable market conditions) by end of 2026 or shortly thereafter, consistent with the speaker's prediction of cyclical closure. Said 8 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• David Friedberg — Anthropic 2026 annualized revenue run rate Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate is reported to be between $100 billion and $120 billion at or before the end of 2026 (i.e., by December 31, 2026). Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• David Rosenberg — US Real GDP Growth Q3 2026 The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advance or second estimate for Q3 2026 real GDP growth comes in at approximately 1.5% (annualized), consistent with four consecutive quarters of ~1.5% real GDP growth. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Denise Chisholm — Federal Reserve 2026 rate cut removal and hike discussion By end of 2026, the Federal Reserve removes all projected 2026 rate cuts from its dot plot or official guidance AND publicly discusses or signals the possibility of a rate hike (e.g., via FOMC statements, press conferences, or meeting minutes). Said 29 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ed Yardeni — Ed Yardeni gold price target $5,500 Gold price reaches or exceeds $5,500 per troy ounce by December 31, 2026, consistent with Ed Yardeni's raised year-end price target. Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ethan He — Video agents achieving production-quality video generation By end of 2026, video agents (AI systems that autonomously generate video content) will have demonstrably achieved production-grade video quality, evidenced by at least one major enterprise or industry adoption milestone (e.g., a major studio, broadcaster, or enterprise publicly deploying AI video agents for production output, or an independent benchmark/industry report confirming production-quality parity). Said 1 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• François Chollet — ARC-AGI-3 competition winning solution approach The winning solution of the ARC-AGI-3 competition (as run in 2026) will NOT be a pure scale-only ("bitter lesson") approach, i.e., the top-scoring solution will incorporate methods beyond simply scaling compute/data (e.g., program synthesis, neurosymbolic methods, explicit reasoning modules, or similar non-scale-only techniques), as verifiable from the official competition results and winner writeup. Said 1 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• François Chollet — ARC-AGI-3 not solved via massive-scale training in 2026 No team or model achieves a competitive score on ARC-AGI-3 using a "bitter lesson" (massive-scale training, no task-specific program synthesis) approach by December 31, 2026, i.e., the benchmark remains unsolved by pure scale-up methods within 2026. Said 1 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Gavin Baker — OpenAI and Anthropic combined ARR exceeding $200B in 2026 Both OpenAI and Anthropic each (or combined, per the claim's framing) report or are credibly reported to have exceeded $200 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) by December 31, 2026. Said 20 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Gavin Baker — AI inference revenue by end of 2026 Global AI inference revenue exceeds $200 billion (annualized or cumulative for 2026) by December 31, 2026, as reported by credible industry sources, analyst firms, or major AI/cloud companies' financial disclosures. Said 11 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Harry Stebbings — Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs in 2026 Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI completes an IPO (initial public offering) or goes public on a stock exchange by December 31, 2026. The prediction is FALSE if either company goes public before that date. Said 7 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ian De Bode — Ondo tokenized stocks AUM target Ondo Finance has $1.5 billion or more in tokenized stocks (equity) under management / on-chain by December 31, 2026, as reported by Ondo, a reputable blockchain data aggregator, or credible financial media. Said 2 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• JD Vance — Young Americans willing to die for their country (2026 vs 2003) A credible poll or survey conducted in 2026 finds that the percentage of young Americans who say they would be willing to die for their country is lower than the equivalent figure recorded in 2003 polling. Said 18 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jack Farley — Crack spread normalization post-summer 2026 The crack spread (the gap between crude oil prices and gasoline prices) narrows/normalizes after the summer driving season, meaning the gasoline-crude crack spread returns to or below its typical non-summer baseline by the end of Q4 2026 (i.e., measurably lower than its summer 2026 peak). Said 26 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jason Calacanis — Calacanis "AI first" employee mandate By end of 2026, Jason Calacanis has publicly confirmed that his company requires all employees to be "AI first" and has terminated or parted ways with employees who did not meet this standard. Said 9 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jason Calacanis — AI-driven layoff wave replacing workers with tokens By end of 2026, a widely reported wave of significant AI-driven layoffs, where companies explicitly replace human workers with AI/token-based systems at scale, has occurred, evidenced by major announcements or data from multiple large employers attributing workforce reductions primarily to AI automation. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jason Calacanis — AI tokens replacing human engineers/product developers By end of 2026, there is clear, widespread evidence that companies are systematically choosing AI token-based solutions over hiring human engineers and product developers, demonstrated by measurable industry-wide reductions in engineering/product headcount or hiring, alongside explicit corporate statements or data showing AI token usage substituting for human labor in these roles. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jason Coloma — PARASOL working group APOL1 kidney disease analysis publication The PARASOL academic working group publishes findings from its APOL1 kidney disease analysis by December 31, 2026. Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jason Lemkin — Corporate abandonment of AI agent reskilling programs By end of 2026, there is clear, widespread evidence (e.g., major analyst reports, surveys, or significant corporate announcements) that a substantial portion of companies have formally abandoned or significantly scaled back structured reskilling programs aimed at helping employees work alongside AI agents, in favor of replacement hiring or other strategies. Said 11 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jason Lemkin — SaaStr AI SDR deployment count SaaStr is running five or six AI SDRs by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by Jason Lemkin or official SaaStr communications. Said 6 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jeremie Beaufils — Gas turbine orders pickup in 2026 Gas turbine orders (as measured by industry-reported "holders" or order intake figures from major manufacturers other than GE Vernova, e.g. Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi, or the broader market) show a measurable year-over-year increase in 2026 compared to 2025, contradicting consensus expectations of GE Vernova dominance crowding out competitors. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Jeremy Grantham — Global drought and temperature records due to El Niño By end of 2026, global meteorological agencies (e.g., NOAA, WMO, or NASA GISS) report that 2026 set new all-time records for both global average temperatures and drought severity/extent, explicitly linked to El Niño conditions. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Joe Liemandt — Joe Liemandt free-to-learn educational video game launch A free-to-learn educational video game targeting 500 million kids, as described by Joe Liemandt, begins shipping/becomes publicly available at some point in the second half of 2026 (after May 27, 2026). Said 27 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Joseph Wang — SpaceX employee/investor stock sales after lockup expiration Reports or filings confirm that SpaceX employees and/or venture investors sold shares following lockup expirations in the months after June 2026 (i.e., by end of 2026). Said 17 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Joseph Wang — Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 The Federal Reserve does NOT raise its federal funds rate target at any FOMC meeting during the remainder of 2026 (i.e., no rate hike is announced at any meeting from June 17, 2026 through December 31, 2026). Said 17 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Josh Brown — Iran geopolitical situation and oil price stabilization By end of 2026, the Iranian geopolitical situation does not escalate into a major military conflict or catastrophe, AND the price of crude oil (WTI or Brent) remains in the $70-$89 per barrel range without a sustained spike above $90 or drop below $60. Said 8 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Josh Brown — SpaceX publicly tradable free float expansion By December 31, 2026, SpaceX's publicly tradable free float increases from approximately 3% to approximately 50% of total shares outstanding (e.g., via a public listing, secondary market expansion, or other mechanism that makes ~50% of shares freely tradable). Said 10 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Josh Brown — Private credit/equity blow-up by end of 2026 By December 31, 2026, no major private credit fund and no major private equity fund suffers a catastrophic collapse (i.e., a fund going to zero or near-zero, a widely reported systemic blow-up, or a high-profile fund failure causing significant investor losses comparable to historical blow-ups like LTCM or Archegos). The prediction is TRUE if no such event occurs, and FALSE if at least one major private credit or private equity fund collapses or goes to zero by that date. Said 8 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Josh Pristaw — Clarion Partners 2026 industrial groundbreakings Clarion Partners breaks ground on approximately 10 million square feet of new industrial projects during calendar year 2026, as stated by Josh Pristaw. Said 4 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• KR Sridhar — Bloom Energy manufacturing capacity exceeding 2 GW Bloom Energy's manufacturing capacity officially exceeds 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026, as confirmed by company announcements, earnings reports, or credible third-party sources. Said 29 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Kathryn Rooney Vera — Fed rate hike in 2026 given 0.3% avg MoM inflation If month-over-month CPI inflation averages 0.3% or higher from the episode date (2026-07-29) through end of 2026, the Federal Reserve will have announced at least one interest rate hike in 2026 by December 31, 2026. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Kathryn Rooney Vera — US CPI/PCE hitting Fed's 2% inflation target in 2026 US inflation (as measured by the Fed's preferred PCE price index, year-over-year) does NOT reach 2.0% or below at any point during calendar year 2026, consistent with Kathryn Rooney Vera's claim that there is "no chance" of hitting the Fed's 2% target this year. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Kathryn Rooney Vera — Fed rate hikes in 2026 If month-over-month CPI inflation averages 0.2% from July 2025 through end of 2026, the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates at any point during calendar year 2026. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Kathryn Rooney Vera — Fed first rate hike timing The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate for the first time (in the current cycle) at or before its December 2026 meeting, and does NOT raise rates at its September 2026 meeting. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Kevin Roose — AI solving a Millennium Prize Problem An AI company publicly announces and the mathematical community verifies that an AI system has solved at least one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems (as defined by the Clay Mathematics Institute) by December 31, 2026. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Kevin Roose — Global social media minimum age norm (16+) By 2026-12-31, age 16+ has become the widely adopted global norm for social media account access, meaning a clear majority of major social media platforms and/or a significant number of countries/jurisdictions have enacted or enforced policies requiring users to be at least 16 years old to create an account. Said 10 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Laura Burkhauser — Descript AI co-editor 'do it well' grade reaching 80% Descript's internal metric for its AI co-editor "do it well" grade reaches 80% by the end of 2026, as reported or confirmed by Descript (e.g., via Laura Burkhauser or official company communications). Said 6 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Lin Qiao — Fireworks AI ARR doubling by end of 2026 Fireworks AI's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is at least double its value as of mid-2026 (around the episode date of 2026-07-20) by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by a public announcement, press release, or credible reporting. Said 20 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Lori Heinel — Federal Reserve rate policy H2 2026 The Federal Reserve does not raise its federal funds rate target at any FOMC meeting from July 24, 2026 through December 31, 2026 (i.e., rates remain on hold with no hikes for the remainder of 2026). Said 24 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Luke Gromen — Fed rate hikes in 2026 The Federal Reserve does not raise its benchmark interest rate (federal funds rate target range) at any of its remaining 2026 FOMC meetings (after July 28, 2026) through the end of 2026, consistent with Luke Gromen's claim that the US fiscal situation prevents any rate hikes for the remainder of 2026. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Luke Gromen — Bitcoin price downside through Q4 2026 Bitcoin's price is lower at some point during Q4 2026 (October-December 2026) than it was on the episode date of 2026-07-28, consistent with Luke Gromen's prediction of further downside through approximately Q4 2026 based on historical precedent. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Marc Andreessen — OpenAI + Anthropic combined revenue run rate $200B by end of 2026 The combined annualized revenue run rate of OpenAI and Anthropic reaches or exceeds $200 billion by December 31, 2026, as reported by credible financial sources, company disclosures, or reputable journalism. Said 29 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Matthew Prince — Park Record AI licensing revenue vs. digital advertising revenue in 2026 By end of 2026, the Park Record earns more total revenue from one-off AI licensing deals than from digital advertising for the full calendar year 2026. Said 25 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Michael Howell — Fed rate hike September-December 2026 The Federal Reserve does NOT raise interest rates at its September or October 2026 meetings, and any rate hike in 2026 (if it occurs) happens no earlier than the December 2026 FOMC meeting, consistent with the speaker's prediction that election proximity rules out Sep/Oct hikes and only a "Christmas" (December) window remains. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Michael Howell — Gold all-time high by year-end 2026 Gold (spot or front-month futures) does NOT close at a new all-time high (i.e., does not close above its prior record high as of the episode date) at any point on or before 2026-12-31. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Michael Oliver — US T-bond prices break below prior multi-year lows US Treasury bond prices (as measured by a benchmark long-bond instrument, e.g. the 30-year T-bond futures or TLT ETF) fall below the lows recorded approximately two years prior to June 2026 (i.e., the lows set around 2023-2024), confirming that those prior lows did not hold as support. Said 8 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Michael Oliver — Silver price - last chance breakdown below $70 before major upside breakout Silver fails to close below $70/oz during the current near-term selloff (i.e., the downside pressure does not take hold), and silver subsequently breaks out to a new significant high above its June 2026 levels, consistent with Michael Oliver's "major upside breakout" scenario, OR silver does close decisively below $70/oz, falsifying the "last chance" framing by showing the breakdown did occur. Said 8 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Michael Strain — Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2026 The Federal Reserve does NOT raise its federal funds rate target at any FOMC meeting during the calendar year 2026 (i.e., no rate hike is announced between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026). Said 6 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Mike Granoff — Waymo paid rides milestone - 1 million per week Waymo publicly reports or credibly confirms reaching at least 1 million paid rides per week by December 31, 2026. Said 6 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Mira Rapp-Hooper — Japan defense investment under PM Takaichi By end of 2026, Japan under PM Takaichi takes concrete, publicly announced steps to invest in its defense industry and/or co-production arrangements (e.g., new budget allocations, signed co-production agreements, or legislative/policy measures specifically advancing defense industrial capacity). Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathan Labenz — OpenAI ML research intern AI capability OpenAI publicly demonstrates or announces that it has achieved an AI system capable of performing at the level of an ML research intern by the end of 2026, consistent with their stated timeline. Said 6 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathan Labenz — AI content disclosure norms collapse By end of 2026, the norm of disclosing AI-generated content has broadly collapsed among mainstream content creators and platforms, evidenced by major platforms dropping AI-disclosure requirements and/or a significant majority of high-profile AI-generated content being published without disclosure labels. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathan Lambert — Meta Llama 2026 open-weights release scale If Meta releases an open-weights Llama model in 2026, the first such release is a small model (approximately 8B parameters or fewer) rather than a full-scale flagship model (e.g., 70B+ parameters). Said 18 Dec 2025 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathan Lambert — Meta Llama open-weights release in 2026 Meta does NOT release any open-weights Llama model in 2026, and instead releases a closed (non-open-weights) model under the Llama name during that year. Said 18 Dec 2025 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathan Lambert — Open model parameter count ceiling in 2026 No publicly released open-weights model with 5 trillion or more parameters is announced or released by the end of 2026. The largest open-weights model released in 2026 remains below 5 trillion parameters. Said 22 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathan Lambert — MiniMax trillion-parameter open model release MiniMax releases a publicly available (open or open-weight) model with at least one trillion parameters by end of 2026, and the model receives notable positive reception from the AI community regarding output quality relative to prior MiniMax models. Said 22 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Compute futures launch Compute futures (financial derivative contracts tied to computing resources) are publicly launched/available for trading by December 31, 2026. Said 10 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — AI 2040 plan prediction on superintelligence emergence The "AI 2040 plan" (or document referred to by that name) contains a prediction that, without decisive government action, superintelligence would emerge by 2030. Said 15 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Chinese frontier (Mythos-level) AI model release By December 31, 2026, a Chinese AI lab publicly releases a frontier model considered equivalent in capability to a "Mythos-level" (top-tier, frontier) model, i.e., a model that benchmarks competitively with the leading Western frontier models of the time, as reported by credible AI research outlets or benchmark leaderboards. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — SpaceX AI model capability ranking vs Google and OpenAI By end of 2026, SpaceX AI's models are ranked (by at least one widely recognized benchmark or industry evaluation) as having capability between Google's and OpenAI's flagship models. Said 17 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Nathaniel Whittemore — SpaceX stock lock-up expiry bearish pressure SpaceX secondary market share price (e.g. on Forge Global, EquityZen, or similar platforms) declines measurably (at least 10% from its mid-June 2026 level) during the second half of 2026, coinciding with or following a significant lock-up expiry/unlock event for SpaceX shares. Said 17 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Peter Boockvar — Federal Reserve rate policy in 2026 The Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts and zero rate hikes in 2026 (i.e., the federal funds target rate remains unchanged from its level at the start of 2026 through December 31, 2026). Said 15 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Peter Boockvar — Bank of Japan interest rate hikes in 2026 The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at least twice (i.e., continuously/multiple times) during the calendar year 2026, as evidenced by official BOJ policy announcements. Said 15 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Professor Jiang — US national military draft reinstatement By December 31, 2026, the United States has officially instituted a national military draft with automatic registration for males aged 18-25, meaning legislation has been signed into law and the draft is actively in effect or formally scheduled to begin. Said 7 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Robin Mills — Energy market disruptions from conflict persisting through 2026 Measurable energy market disruptions attributable to the conflict (e.g., sustained price spikes, supply shortfalls, trade-flow disruptions, or emergency policy responses in oil, gas, or electricity markets) are documented as persisting through at least summer 2026 and continuing for the remainder of the calendar year 2026. Said 9 Apr 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ron Hammond — Clarity Act passage probability (Ron Hammond estimate) The Clarity Act passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law by the end of the current legislative session (by December 31, 2026), as estimated at 45% probability by Ron Hammond on June 4, 2026. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Russell Clark — 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 10% The 10-year US Treasury yield closes at or above 10% on at least one trading day by December 31, 2026. Said 22 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — Bitcoin drawdown from previous cycle high Bitcoin's maximum drawdown from its previous cycle high (the ~$69,000 peak set in November 2021) reaches at least 60% at some point during the current cycle, meaning Bitcoin's price falls to approximately $27,600 or below. As of the episode date the drawdown is ~54%, so this requires a further decline to confirm the historical 60-65% pattern Ryan Sean Adams describes. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — HLP3 volumes on Hyperliquid exceeding all other crypto volumes in a single day On at least one calendar day on or before 2026-12-31, the trading volume of HP3 (HLP3) on Hyperliquid exceeds the combined trading volume of all other crypto assets/venues on Hyperliquid for that same day, as reported by Hyperliquid's own data or a credible third-party source. Said 19 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — Ben Cowen's crypto cycle bottom prediction - October 2026 The crypto market cycle bottom (as measured by a major index such as Bitcoin's price or total crypto market cap) occurs in October 2026, consistent with Ben Cowen's prediction. This is true if Bitcoin or the broader crypto market reaches a local/cycle low in October 2026 and subsequently recovers, and false if the cycle bottom is confirmed to have occurred in a different month. Said 31 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — Federal Reserve rate hikes at September and December 2026 FOMC meetings The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at both the September 2026 and December 2026 FOMC meetings (i.e., two additional rate hikes occur in Q3-Q4 2026), as predicted by Michael Nato due to persistent inflation. Said 31 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — Circle-Coinbase revenue-sharing renegotiation Circle renegotiates (or publicly announces the renegotiation of) its revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase in 2026, consistent with the claimed three-year renewal cycle. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ryan Sean Adams — US crypto clarity legislation passage in 2026 No comprehensive US crypto clarity legislation is signed into law by December 31, 2026. The prediction resolves TRUE (i.e., the claim is correct) if no such bill passes both chambers of Congress and is enacted before end of 2026. Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Sarah Guo — AI coding as a "solved problem" By end of 2026, AI systems can autonomously handle the full spectrum of real-world software engineering tasks (writing, debugging, deploying production-grade code across arbitrary domains) without meaningful human intervention, widely recognized by the industry as "solved", evidenced by leading benchmarks (e.g., SWE-bench) reaching near-100% and/or major industry consensus that human coding labor is largely obsolete. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Shannon Miller — Mainspring Energy hydrogen project with National Grid Ventures Mainspring Energy runs (i.e., launches or operates) a hydrogen project in partnership with National Grid Ventures at some point in the second half of 2026 (after the episode date of 2026-07-07). Said 7 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Shayle Kann — State legislative proposals on data centers At least 45 distinct state legislative proposals specifically addressing data centers are introduced across U.S. state legislatures during the fall 2026 legislative session period (approximately September-December 2026). Said 10 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Stacey Stephens — Digit V5 barrier-free warehouse operation Agility Robotics' Digit V5 is publicly released/deployed in 2026 and is demonstrated or certified to operate in a warehouse environment outside a safety work cell without physical barriers between the robot and human workers, as confirmed by Agility Robotics announcements, third-party reporting, or regulatory/industry certification. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Steven Strogatz — Strogatz lab paper on social-touch skin-to-brain pathway and negative emotional states A paper from the referenced lab demonstrating that activating a specific social-touch skin-to-brain pathway can relieve negative emotional states is submitted for publication by December 31, 2026. Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Tom Mueller — Dusty Robotics deployed robot count by end of 2026 Dusty Robotics has approximately 200 robots deployed in the field by December 31, 2026, as stated or confirmed by the company or credible reporting. Said 3 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Zeev Farbman — Games running on video generation systems No commercially available or publicly released game that runs entirely on a video generation system (i.e., using AI video generation as the real-time game engine) is launched by 2026-12-31. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Zhi Tang — ZAI open-source model at Mythos level ZAI releases a publicly available open-source model that reaches or matches "Mythos level" performance (as defined by ZAI or recognized benchmarks) by December 31, 2026. Said 14 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
• Ron Hammond — Clarity Act passage in current legislative session The Clarity Act does not pass in the current (119th) U.S. Congressional session (ending January 2027), and no comparable crypto market structure legislation passes before 2028. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 3 Jan 2027
• Jason Lemkin — Three $1T+ IPOs within months of July 2026 At least three companies each complete an IPO with a valuation exceeding one trillion USD, with all three IPOs occurring between 2026-07-08 and 2027-01-08 (i.e., within approximately six months of the episode date). Said 8 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 8 Jan 2027
• Zeev Farbman — Robotic arm task demos emergence By 2027-01-09, publicly visible demos of robotic arms performing tasks (consistent with the context of Zeev Farbman's prediction) have appeared and been reported or published. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 9 Jan 2027
• Nathan Lambert — Open AI models regulatory status By January 14, 2027, a concrete policy or regulation has been enacted or formally proposed (e.g., passed into law, signed as an executive order, or advanced to a final rule stage) that explicitly restricts or disadvantages open-weight/open-source AI models relative to closed/proprietary models, such as imposing licensing requirements, capability thresholds, or liability regimes that apply only to open models, consistent with Nathan Lambert's warning of open models becoming "permanent second-class citizens." Said 14 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 14 Jan 2027
• Jack Farley — US CPI Headline Inflation reaching 4% range by end of 2026 The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a headline CPI year-over-year inflation reading of 4.0% or higher (i.e., in the "fours") for any month on or before December 2026, with the December 2026 reading (released in January 2027) being the final check point. Said 8 May 2026 · Resolves by 15 Jan 2027
• Jason Calacanis — Clarity Act passage post-2026 elections The Clarity Act is passed by the U.S. Congress and signed into law (or otherwise enacted) in the period immediately following the November 2026 midterm elections, i.e., by end of 2026 or during the lame-duck/early post-election legislative session (by 2027-01-20). Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 20 Jan 2027
• Jerry Murdock — OpenRouter inference pricing disruption By 2027-01-22, OpenRouter's 5% markup model on inference has faced major disruption, evidenced by at least one of: OpenRouter publicly abandoning or significantly reducing its markup, a competing inference exchange capturing substantial market share from OpenRouter, or OpenRouter announcing a major pricing restructure in response to competitive pressure from new inference exchanges. Said 22 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 22 Jan 2027
• Rory O'Driscoll — Stripe acquisition premium for PayPal settling at ~35% A Stripe acquisition of PayPal is announced with a final deal premium of approximately 35% (i.e., between 33% and 37%) over PayPal's pre-offer share price, within 6 months of the episode date. Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jan 2027
• Kevin Roose — Open-source Chinese AI models catching up to OpenAI models By 2027-01-24, at least one open-source Chinese AI model achieves benchmark performance (e.g., on MMLU, GPQA, or comparable standard benchmarks) within 5% of the then-leading OpenAI frontier model, as reported by credible AI evaluation sources or independent benchmarking organizations. Said 24 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 24 Jan 2027
• Olivier Pomel — Datadog engineering stops writing code manually By 2027-01-24, Olivier Pomel or Datadog publicly confirms that their engineering team has stopped writing code manually and is relying fully on AI automation, OR credible reporting corroborates this outcome at Datadog. Said 24 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 24 Jan 2027
• Ron Baron — Grok AI capability parity with Anthropic By 2027-01-24, Grok (xAI's AI model) is rated as equal to or surpassing Anthropic's leading AI model in at least one major, widely recognized AI benchmark or independent capability evaluation (e.g., MMLU, GPQA, Chatbot Arena Elo, or equivalent). Said 24 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 24 Jan 2027
• Casey Newton — Chinese open-weights model reaching frontier US model capability By 2027-02-07, a Chinese open-weights model is publicly released that is benchmarked or widely assessed as approximately equal in capability to frontier US models such as Claude (Fable-tier) or GPT-5.6 (or equivalent contemporaneous frontier models), and is made available via open weights without undergoing US government safety testing. Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 7 Feb 2027
• Nathan Lambert — AI model 2x performance gain No new AI model released between 2025-08-07 and 2027-02-07 achieves a 2x performance gain over its predecessor on a widely recognized benchmark (e.g., MMLU, GPQA, HumanEval, or a comparable standard evaluation), as assessed by published benchmark results or credible third-party evaluations. Said 7 Aug 2025 · Resolves by 7 Feb 2027
• Nathaniel Whittemore — AI context and harness management best practices evolution By February 2026, widely recognized best practices for AI context and harness management have materially changed from those documented in August 2025, as evidenced by updated industry guidance, frameworks, tooling standards, or authoritative publications reflecting substantively different recommended approaches. Said 19 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 19 Feb 2027
• Jack Farley — Anthropic IPO marking market top The Anthropic IPO occurs in October 2026 AND the broad US equity market (e.g., S&P 500) reaches a local peak at or around the time of the IPO and then declines by at least 10% within 3 months following the IPO date, analogous to the pattern Jack Farley describes for the SpaceX IPO. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 28 Feb 2027
• Josh Brown — S&P 500 earnings growth through end of 2026 S&P 500 aggregate earnings (EPS) for full-year 2026 are higher than full-year 2025 earnings, confirming continued earnings growth throughout 2026. Said 8 May 2026 · Resolves by 28 Feb 2027
• Rana Foroohar — Xi Jinping AI stance shift By February 28, 2027, there is credible public reporting that Xi Jinping experienced a significant, fear-driven reassessment of AI capabilities that led to a notable shift in China's official policy or rhetoric toward AI, such as emergency regulatory action, a major internal directive, or a publicly documented change in stance attributed to alarm over AI power. Said 31 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 28 Feb 2027
• Val Zlatev — Memory price decline within 6-9 months By March 2027, there is NO sharp decline in DRAM/NAND memory prices (i.e., memory prices do not fall sharply, defined as a quarter-over-quarter average price drop of 20% or more for DRAM or NAND, within the 6-9 month window following June 2026, consistent with Val Zlatev's claim that such a decline is unlikely. Said 20 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 20 Mar 2027
• Andreas Steno Larsen — Semiconductor cycle turning point The semiconductor industry cycle shows a clear directional turn (i.e., a meaningful inflection from downturn to upturn or vice versa, evidenced by declining revenues, inventory corrections, or major analyst/industry consensus declaring a cycle turn) by the end of Q1 2027 (2027-03-31). Said 25 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Christopher Callahan — 2026 warmest year on record 2026 is officially recorded as the warmest year on record globally (i.e., ranked #1 in global mean surface temperature) by at least one major climate monitoring agency such as NASA GISS, NOAA, or the WMO, as reported in their annual global temperature assessments. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• David Risher — Lyft annual rides in 2026 Lyft reports approximately 1 billion total rides completed in full-year 2026 (i.e., annual rides figure of ~1 billion as stated in official earnings reports or company disclosures). Said 8 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Gary Vee — VFriends 2026 revenue target VFriends generates at least $20 million in total revenue in calendar year 2026 from licensing, comic books, coins, and/or trading cards, as confirmed by Gary Vee, VFriends official reporting, or credible third-party coverage. Said 19 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Jack Farley — US CPI inflation acceleration in Q1 2027 At least one monthly US CPI or core CPI print released during Q1 2027 (covering January, February, or March 2027 data) shows a month-over-month or year-over-year increase meaningfully above the prevailing trend as of late 2026, widely characterized by analysts or financial media as a "hot" or accelerating inflation reading. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Jason Calacanis — Jason Calacanis LAUNCH Fund Five with incubation allocation Jason Calacanis launches "Fund Five" in Q1 2027 (by 2027-03-31) and publicly states that 10-20% of its capital is earmarked for incubated companies. Said 15 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Jason Calacanis — Humanoid robot unit sales in 2026 Global humanoid robot unit sales in 2026 reach approximately 48,000 units (roughly triple the ~16,000 units sold in 2025), as reported by an industry source or market research firm by end of 2026 or shortly after. Said 5 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Jerry Murdock — AI bubble burst A widely recognized market correction or collapse in AI-related equities/valuations occurs, evidenced by a major AI stock index or basket (e.g., Nasdaq AI-focused ETFs, leading AI company stocks) declining 30% or more from a recent peak, or a prominent analyst/financial institution formally declaring the "AI bubble" has burst, between October 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027. Said 22 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Karn Saroya — Re reaching $1B in written premium by Jan 1, 2027 Re (the reinsurance company co-founded by Karn Saroya) reports or publicly announces achieving at least $1 billion in written premium by January 1, 2027 (the January 1 renewal cycle). Said 18 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• McKeel Hagerty — Hagerty new member additions in 2026 Hagerty adds more than 371,000 new members in full-year 2026, surpassing the 2025 record of 371,000 new members. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Scott Galloway — Scott Galloway legal fee reduction via AI Scott Galloway publicly confirms that his organization reduced its annual legal fees (from a baseline of approximately $100,000-$300,000/year) by at least one-third in 2026, attributable to using AI for contract review. Said 4 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Shayle Kann — China annual solar deployment 2026 vs 2025 China's total newly installed solar capacity in calendar year 2026 is less than its total newly installed solar capacity in calendar year 2025, as reported by official Chinese energy/grid authorities (e.g., NEA or NBS). Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Val Zlatev — PC and smartphone unit sales decline in 2026 Full-year 2026 global unit shipments for both PCs and smartphones are each reported down approximately 13-17% (mid-teens percent) year-over-year, attributable at least in part to memory cost pass-through effects, as evidenced by industry analyst reports (e.g., IDC, Gartner, or Canalys) covering calendar year 2026. Said 20 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2027
• Sean Carroll — Joel Embiid health in 2026-27 NBA season Joel Embiid plays the entire 2026-27 NBA regular season without missing games due to injury or health-related reasons (i.e., he is "perfectly healthy" throughout the season). Said 3 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 13 Apr 2027
• Shayle Kann — Chinese EV firms record exports and losses in 2026 Chinese electric vehicle firms set a new record for annual EV exports in 2026 AND at least one major Chinese EV manufacturer (e.g., BYD, NIO, Li Auto, or Xpeng) reports a net loss for full-year 2026. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Apr 2027
• Thierry Bros — Salmon and shrimp price increases due to Peruvian anchovy shortage By May 2027, observable price increases in salmon and/or shrimp markets are reported and attributed to a fish meal shortage caused by poor anchovy catches in Peru, as predicted by Thierry Bros in August 2026. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 6 May 2027
• Jason Lemkin — HubSpot agentic strategy growth reacceleration HubSpot reports a measurable reacceleration in revenue growth (year-over-year revenue growth rate increases compared to the rate at time of claim) within 12 months of the episode date, attributable to or coinciding with its agentic AI strategy, as evidenced by at least one quarterly earnings report released by May 7, 2027. Said 7 May 2026 · Resolves by 7 May 2027
• Garry Tan — Universal personal AI adoption By May 2027, every person on the planet (or a near-universal share, i.e. the overwhelming majority of the world's ~8 billion people) has access to and uses their own personal AI assistant, as evidenced by credible global adoption statistics, major industry reports, or widespread mainstream acknowledgment of this milestone. Said 8 May 2026 · Resolves by 8 May 2027
• Ryan Sean Adams — Ethereum L1 throughput 7x increase via Glasser Dam upgrade By 2027-05-08, the Ethereum L1 network has implemented the "Glasser Dam" upgrade (or equivalent roadmap milestone), resulting in a verified 7x increase in transactions per second and block space availability on the Ethereum L1 compared to pre-upgrade levels. Said 8 May 2026 · Resolves by 8 May 2027
• Ryan Sean Adams — SEC/CFTC/Treasury joint rulemaking on stablecoin yield By 2027-05-08, at least one of the SEC, CFTC, or Treasury (individually or jointly) issues formal rulemaking, guidance, or a joint regulatory action that provides explicit regulatory clarity around stablecoin yield (i.e., interest or yield paid to stablecoin holders). Said 8 May 2026 · Resolves by 8 May 2027
• Jason Lemkin — Traditional marketing automation software obsolescence By May 2027, at least one of the top traditional marketing automation platforms (e.g., Marketo, HubSpot Marketing Hub, Pardot/Salesforce Marketing Cloud Account Engagement) has been discontinued, lost more than 30% of its reported customer base, or its parent company has publicly announced it is being replaced by an AI-native alternative, consistent with the claim that traditional marketing automation software is no longer needed. Said 14 May 2026 · Resolves by 14 May 2027
• Dan Shipper — GPT reaching senior engineer level coding ability An OpenAI model (GPT-5.5 or successor) achieves a benchmark score equivalent to "senior engineer level" on a recognized coding/software-engineering benchmark (e.g., SWE-bench or equivalent), as described by OpenAI or widely reported in credible sources, by 2027-05-24. Said 24 May 2026 · Resolves by 24 May 2027
• Denise Chisholm — Semiconductor sector outperformance vs. market The semiconductor sector (e.g., as measured by a broad semiconductor index such as the PHLX Semiconductor Index/SOX or ETF like SOXX) outperforms the broader U.S. equity market (e.g., S&P 500) over the 12-month period from the episode date of 2026-05-29 through 2027-05-29. Said 29 May 2026 · Resolves by 29 May 2027
• Brendan Foody — Mercor daily payout reaching $9 million Mercor's daily payout to workers reaches or exceeds $9 million USD by June 2027, tripling from the ~$3 million daily payout reported as of June 2026. Said 1 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 1 Jun 2027
• Michael Howell — Federal Reserve interest rate hike The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate (federal funds rate) at least once within 12 months of the episode date, i.e., by 2027-06-03, contrary to prevailing market expectations of no further hikes. Said 3 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 3 Jun 2027
• Jason Calacanis — AI frontier model pricing drop By 2027-06-04, at least one model that was considered a frontier model as of 2026-06-04 (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Gemini 1.5 Pro, or equivalent) is available at 5-10x lower API pricing than its price on 2026-06-04, having been superseded by a newer frontier model. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 4 Jun 2027
• Jason Lemkin — $100B startup acquisition A startup valued at $100 billion or more is acquired (acquisition deal announced or closed) within 12 months of the episode date, i.e., by 2027-06-11. Said 11 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 11 Jun 2027
• Jason Calacanis — SpaceX & Tesla as top NASDAQ 100 performers By 2027-06-13 (1-year horizon), SpaceX and Tesla are among the top performers in the NASDAQ 100 index by total return over the prior 1-year period, as measurable from public index or financial data sources. Said 13 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 13 Jun 2027
• Arthur Hayes — WTI crude oil price exceeding $120 WTI crude oil spot price closes above $120 per barrel on at least one trading day on or before 2027-06-22. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 22 Jun 2027
• Jason Lemkin — AI agent manual correction obsolescence By 2027-06-25, leading AI agent frameworks and underlying models have advanced to the point that manual correction of agent behaviors is widely reported as unnecessary for common business/software use cases, evidenced by credible industry reports, major vendor announcements, or broad practitioner consensus that human-in-the-loop correction steps have been effectively eliminated. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 25 Jun 2027
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Micron memory market undersupply forecast Micron executives have publicly forecast that the memory market will remain undersupplied for at least the next year from mid-2026 (i.e., through at least mid-2027), and that gross margins will expand to 86% in Q4, both statements confirmed via Micron earnings calls, press releases, or credible financial reporting on or around the episode date of 2026-06-25. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 25 Jun 2027
• Noam Brown — AI model zero-shot poker solver (Noam Brown PhD-level) By 2027-06-26, at least one publicly demonstrated AI model is able to generate a complete, functional poker solver zero-shot, equivalent in scope and correctness to Noam Brown's PhD thesis work, without task-specific fine-tuning or iterative human guidance. Said 26 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 26 Jun 2027
• Paul Erlanger — FOMO headcount target FOMO's total headcount is below 25 employees as of June 27, 2027. Said 27 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 27 Jun 2027
• Andreas Steno Larsen — End of current economic cycle in 2026 By end of 2026, a recognized economic recession or cycle turning point (as defined by a major economic body such as the NBER, CEPR, or equivalent) is declared or confirmed to have begun in 2026, consistent with 2026 being the final year of the current expansion cycle. Said 25 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2027
• Art Berman — Strait of Hormuz oil flow recovery to 50% of pre-war levels Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have NOT recovered to at least 50% of pre-war (pre-conflict) levels by mid-2027 (on or before 2027-06-30), as measured by credible energy data sources (e.g., EIA, IEA, or equivalent). Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2027
• David Woo — Marine Le Pen wins 2027 French Presidential Election Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French Presidential Election (i.e., is elected President of France in the 2027 election cycle). Said 18 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2027
• Jason Calacanis — Anthropic 2026 annual revenue Anthropic's total revenue for the full year 2026 is reported to be between $50 billion and $60 billion (inclusive). Said 9 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2027
• Matthew Prince — AI bot traffic exceeding human internet traffic AI/bot-generated traffic on the internet surpasses human-generated traffic in volume by the end of H1 2027 (i.e., by June 30, 2027), as reported or confirmed by Cloudflare, a major internet traffic analytics firm, or credible industry research. Said 25 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2027
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Anthropic 2026 annual revenue Anthropic's total revenue for the full year 2026 is reported to be between $100 billion and $150 billion (inclusive). Said 3 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2027
• Thierry Bros — Global coal consumption record in 2026 Global coal consumption in 2026 sets a new all-time record in absolute volume (i.e., exceeds any previously recorded annual coal consumption figure), even as coal's share of the total global energy mix is lower than in prior peak years. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2027
• Rory O'Driscoll — Kalshi $100B valuation Kalshi does NOT achieve a $100 billion valuation (via funding round, public market listing, or credible third-party valuation report) by 2027-07-02. Said 2 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 2 Jul 2027
• Dan Schwarz — AI forecasters surpassing human accuracy By 2027-07-09, at least one published study, benchmark, or widely-cited evaluation demonstrates that AI forecasting systems outperform human forecasters (e.g., on prediction markets or structured forecasting tournaments such as those run by Metaculus, RAND, or similar) by a statistically significant margin, with the AI's reasoning or methodology not fully understood by human evaluators. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 9 Jul 2027
• Brad Gerstner — Trump Account program fundraising target The Trump Account program raises at least $100 billion in contributions/commitments within the first 12 months of the program's launch (by approximately July 2027, anchored to the episode date of 2026-07-11). Said 11 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 11 Jul 2027
• Avishai Abrahami — AI impact on small businesses By July 2027, widely reported evidence (e.g., major surveys, government/industry reports, or mainstream news coverage) confirms that AI tools have had a massive, measurable effect on small business operations, revenue, or employment, such as adoption rates exceeding 50% among small businesses or documented large-scale displacement/augmentation of small-business workflows attributable to AI. Said 13 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 13 Jul 2027
• Ben Pouladian — Nvidia $200B operating profit (12-month forward) Nvidia reports cumulative operating profit of at least $200 billion across the four fiscal quarters ending on or before 2027-07-14, as disclosed in its official financial statements. Said 14 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 14 Jul 2027
• Harry Stebbings — OpenAI hardware product initiative pause OpenAI officially pauses or halts its hardware product initiative for approximately one year, with no new hardware product launches or major hardware development announcements during that period, as confirmed by credible reporting or an official OpenAI statement by 2027-07-16. Said 16 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 16 Jul 2027
• Rory O'Driscoll — CFO pushback on AI spend doubling tech budgets By 2027-07-16, there is documented evidence of widespread CFO/enterprise pushback on AI software spending, such as major analyst reports, earnings call commentary, or survey data showing that a significant share of enterprises are cutting or freezing AI tool budgets due to lack of proportional headcount reduction or ROI, OR AI coding tool revenue growth (e.g. GitHub Copilot, Cursor, or comparable category leaders) shows a material deceleration (year-over-year growth rate dropping by at least 30 percentage points) within the 12-month window. Said 16 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 16 Jul 2027
• Nathaniel Whittemore — AI tools enabling fully self-driving company By July 2027, all the key components necessary to run a self-driving (autonomous AI-operated) company are available as productized tools on the market, meaning identifiable software products covering the full stack (e.g., autonomous planning, execution, finance, HR, sales, operations) have been publicly released and are commercially available. Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jul 2027
• Ryan Sean Adams — SEC best-price rule full relaxation for tokenized equities By 2027-07-23, the SEC has NOT fully relaxed its best-price rule for tokenized equities (i.e., no final rule or formal regulatory action constituting full relaxation has been enacted or taken effect). Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jul 2027
• Garry Tan — AI models auto-spawning cheaper sub-agents for query routing By 2027-07-25, at least one major commercially available AI model/platform automatically and dynamically routes user queries to cheaper sub-agents internally (without user intervention), as evidenced by a product announcement, technical documentation, or credible reporting from a major AI provider (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or similar). Said 25 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 25 Jul 2027
• Garry Tan — AI model routing becoming automatic and invisible to users By 2027-07-25, at least one major AI lab (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) AND at least one open-source project have deployed automatic model routing systems that transparently route user queries to the optimal model without user intervention, with documented cost reductions for users as a result. Said 25 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 25 Jul 2027
• Luke Gromen — Gold price reaching $5,000 The spot price of gold reaches or exceeds $5,000 per troy ounce at any point within one year of the episode date, i.e., by 2027-07-28. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 28 Jul 2027
• Ross Taylor — OpenAI next funding round OpenAI, led by Sam Altman, successfully closes a new external funding round (equity, convertible note, or equivalent) of at least $1 billion by 2027-07-29. Said 29 Jul 2025 · Resolves by 29 Jul 2027
• Jim Bianco — China matching US AI capabilities By 2027-07-30, at least one Chinese AI model or system is independently benchmarked or widely recognized by credible AI researchers/institutions as matching or exceeding the leading US AI capabilities that existed as of mid-2026 (e.g., comparable performance to GPT-4o, Claude 3.5, or Gemini Ultra on standard benchmarks such as MMLU, GPQA, or equivalent). Said 30 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jul 2027
• David Hoffman — Federal Reserve inflation management strategy: balance sheet reduction vs. rate hikes By 2027-07-31, the Federal Reserve has managed inflation primarily through balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) rather than through interest rate hikes, meaning the Fed has not raised its benchmark federal funds rate during this period, while actively reducing its balance sheet as its primary inflation-fighting tool. Said 31 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Jul 2027
• Jared Dillian — US yield curve steepening The US Treasury yield curve (measured by the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, or the 10-year and Fed Funds rate) is wider/steeper on 2027-08-05 than it was on 2026-08-05, consistent with Jared Dillian's expectation of Fed Funds falling to ~3% while the long end remains elevated. Said 5 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 5 Aug 2027
• Jared Dillian — Fed funds rate at 3% with elevated long-end yields The Federal Reserve's target fed funds rate reaches 3% (or a 3.00%-3.25% target range) while the 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated (above ~4.25%, consistent with "pretty high" relative to a 3% funds rate), within 6-12 months of the episode date. Said 5 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 5 Aug 2027
• Viktor Shvets — Russia-Ukraine war ceasefire / separation of forces and DMZ By 2027-08-06, the Russia-Ukraine war has ended (or a formal ceasefire is in effect) with a documented separation of forces and the establishment of a demilitarized zone (DMZ) along a defined line of contact. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 6 Aug 2027
• Viktor Shvets — Russia-Ukraine war separation of forces A formal or de facto separation of forces (ceasefire line, buffer zone, or equivalent disengagement agreement) between Russian and Ukrainian military forces is established by 2027-08-06, as reported by major international news sources or official government/diplomatic announcements. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 6 Aug 2027
• Ryan Greenblatt — Transition to superhuman AI performance on all jobs after full AI R&D automation If full automation of AI R&D is observed by or before 2026-08-11, then superhuman AI performance across all jobs (i.e., AI surpassing humans on essentially every economically relevant task) is achieved within one year of that automation milestone, i.e., by no later than 2027-08-11. Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 11 Aug 2027
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Hyperscaler acquisition of Cognition AI for $60-100B A hyperscaler (e.g., Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, or Apple) publicly announces or completes an acquisition of Cognition AI at a valuation or deal price of $60-100 billion by 2027-08-13. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 13 Aug 2027
• Jason Calacanis — Meta best open-source AI model By 2027-08-14, Meta's open-source AI model is ranked #1 (or equivalent best) among open-source AI models on at least one major, widely-recognized benchmark leaderboard (e.g., Hugging Face Open LLM Leaderboard, LMSYS Chatbot Arena open-source category, or equivalent). Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 14 Aug 2027
• Brian Greene — Brian Greene AI-powered physics education system launch Brian Greene publicly launches an AI-powered education system designed to help people understand complex physics concepts, on or before 2027-08-17. Said 17 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 17 Aug 2027
• David Rosenberg — Federal Reserve next rate move: cut vs. hike The Federal Reserve's next change to the federal funds rate target (from its level as of 2026-08-20) is a rate cut (i.e., a reduction in the target range), not a rate hike, occurring by 2027-08-20. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 20 Aug 2027
• David Rosenberg — US consumer spending mean reversion to income levels triggering recession Within 12 months of the episode date (by 2027-08-20), US consumer spending growth reverts to align with personal income levels (mean reversion as described by Bob Farrell's Rule #1), and a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or an official NBER recession declaration) is triggered as a result. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 20 Aug 2027
• Max Hodak — Science Corp next-gen retinal implant human trials Science Corp's next-generation retinal implant (the version described as currently entering animal studies as of August 2026) begins human trials by August 20, 2027, as stated by Max Hodak ("hopefully next year"). Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 20 Aug 2027
• Sam Parr — AI-driven video content TAM shift from paid ads to organic By 2027-08-21, the total addressable market (TAM) for AI-driven video editing labor/software (including spending by brands on AI agents for organic video content creation) reaches hundreds of billions of dollars (i.e., ≥$100 billion), up from the tens-of-billions range, as reported by credible market research, industry reports, or widely cited analyst estimates. Said 21 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 21 Aug 2027
• Calvin Butler — PJM rolling brownouts warning for central Maryland PJM issues an official warning or forecast that the central Maryland area faces a risk of rolling brownouts during summer 2027 (i.e., by September 30, 2027). Said 4 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2027
• Tian Yang — OpenAI IPO as market cycle top An OpenAI IPO occurs by end of Q1 2027 (on or before 2027-03-31) AND is followed by a significant broad market decline (e.g., S&P 500 or Nasdaq drops ≥20% peak-to-trough within 6 months of the IPO date), consistent with marking the top of the market cycle. Said 2 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Sep 2027
• Kevin Roose — AI surpassing humans at forecasting By October 30, 2027, AI systems demonstrably surpass humans at forecasting, as evidenced by a peer-reviewed study, major benchmark result, or widely recognized competitive evaluation showing AI outperforming human forecasters on standardized prediction tasks. Said 24 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Oct 2027
• Gavin Baker — Amazon retail robotics P&L efficiencies By November 2027, Amazon has publicly reported or disclosed measurable P&L efficiencies (e.g., reduced fulfillment costs per unit, improved operating margins in its retail/North America segment, or explicit attribution of cost savings to robotics) stemming from robotics deployment in its retail/fulfillment operations, as evidenced by earnings reports, investor presentations, or credible financial reporting. Said 20 May 2026 · Resolves by 20 Nov 2027
• Andre Brelov — AI CEO agent achieving $2,000 e-commerce sales autonomously By 2027-12-21, Andre Brelov's team publicly demonstrates or ships a product in which an AI CEO agent autonomously coordinates sub-agents (e.g., marketing, sales) to achieve at least $2,000 in sales for an e-commerce business (e.g., on Shopify), as described in the episode. Said 21 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 21 Dec 2027
• Alex Kendall — Wayve technology deployment in consumer vehicles Wayve's autonomous driving technology is deployed in at least one consumer vehicle model available to the public by end of 2027, as announced or confirmed by Wayve or an automotive OEM partner. Said 15 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Alex Kendall — Wayve/Volvo autonomous truck deployment Wayve's OEM partner Volvo has hundreds (i.e., at least 200) autonomous trucks deployed by end of 2027, as publicly stated by Volvo. Said 15 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Amjad Masad — Software engineer role shift to "shepherd" of non-engineer code By end of 2027, credible industry surveys, reports, or widespread employer job-description changes show that a primary responsibility of software engineers has formally shifted toward reviewing, securing, and deploying code written by non-engineers (e.g., via AI tools), rather than writing code themselves, evidenced by at least one major industry report (e.g., Stack Overflow Developer Survey, GitHub Octoverse, McKinsey, or equivalent) explicitly documenting this role transformation as a dominant trend. Said 9 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Brian Belski — Salesforce revenue growth acceleration by end of 2026-2027 Salesforce's year-over-year revenue growth rate does NOT accelerate (i.e., does not meaningfully increase quarter-over-quarter) through Q4 2026 and into 2027, even as a meaningful number of other software companies report stabilizing or accelerating revenue growth over the same period. Specifically, Salesforce's reported annual or quarterly revenue growth rate for fiscal year ending January 2027 and/or calendar year 2027 remains flat or decelerates relative to its growth rate at the time of the claim (mid-2026). Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Chey Tae-won — SK Hynix memory supply shortage peak in 2027 By end of 2027, industry reports, analyst assessments, or SK Hynix's own communications confirm that 2027 was characterized as the worst or most severe year for memory supply shortage (e.g., tightest supply-demand balance, highest memory price spikes, or lowest inventory levels relative to demand) compared to surrounding years. Said 14 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Daniel Kokotajlo — AI 2027 scenario: automation of AI research triggering intelligence explosion By end of 2027, at least one major AI company (e.g., OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic) publicly announces or demonstrates that AI systems are substantially automating AI research and development, consistent with the "AI 2027" scenario's prediction of an intelligence explosion beginning in 2027. Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Elon Musk — SpaceX space-based data centers first flight SpaceX conducts at least one flight carrying a space-based data center payload by December 31, 2027, as confirmed by SpaceX announcements, credible news reports, or regulatory filings. Said 14 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Gavin Baker — Nvidia GPU revenue $2-3 trillion in 2026-2027 Nvidia reports annual GPU revenue of at least $2 trillion in either its fiscal year 2026 or fiscal year 2027 results, contingent on TSMC having expanded capacity to meet Nvidia's demand. Said 20 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Jason Calacanis — OpenAI IPO / public company status OpenAI has become a publicly traded company (via IPO, direct listing, or equivalent) on a recognized stock exchange on or before December 31, 2027. Said 21 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Jason Calacanis — World Humanoid Robot Games 2027 - robots breaking human world records At the 2027 World Humanoid Robot Games, humanoid robots break human world records in at least 48 out of 51 categories. Said 25 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Jason Lemkin — CIO AI spending clampdown and AI market micro-crashes By end of 2027, there is documented evidence of a material, widespread reduction in enterprise AI spending by CIOs, such as multiple major analyst reports (e.g., Gartner, Forrester, IDC), earnings call commentary from major AI vendors, or industry surveys showing a notable year-over-year decline or significant deceleration in AI budget allocations, accompanied by reported "micro-crashes" or high variability in AI market growth metrics. Said 30 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Jason Yanowitz — SEC final crypto rules issuance The SEC has NOT issued a complete, final set of rules from the new crypto regulatory proposal by December 31, 2027, i.e., no full final ruling is published in the Federal Register or officially adopted by the SEC before end of 2027. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Jason Yanowitz — SEC crypto rulemaking timeline The SEC's formal rulemaking process on crypto (including notice-and-comment rulemaking, proposed rules, or final rules specifically addressing crypto assets) remains ongoing and has not concluded by December 31, 2027. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Jason Yanowitz — NASDAQ 24/7 trading launch NASDAQ launches 24/7 (or 24/5 as a stated step toward 24/7) trading by December 31, 2027, as confirmed by an official NASDAQ announcement or regulatory filing. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Jeff Dean — AI self-improvement via automated experimentation loops By end of 2027, at least one major AI lab (e.g., Google DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta AI) publicly demonstrates or publishes a production-grade system in which ML models autonomously improve their own capabilities through fully automated experimentation loops (automated problem decomposition, sub-problem execution, and result integration) without requiring human-in-the-loop intervention at each iteration. Said 30 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Lin Qiao — AI token processing volume growth (20x-100x) By end of 2027, the daily token count processed (by the relevant AI platform/industry Lin Qiao references) has increased by at least 20x compared to the baseline at the time of the episode (July 2026). A 100x increase is the upper bound of the prediction. Said 20 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Lyn Baranowski — Aveline inhaled nintedanib Phase 2 study enrollment and readout Aveline's Phase 2 study of inhaled nintedanib is fully enrolled AND reports top-line or primary results by late 2027 (on or before 2027-12-31). Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Max Hodak — Science Corp retinal implant human trials Science Corp's next-generation retinal implant enters human clinical trials by end of 2027, as stated by Max Hodak. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Michael Batnick — Semiconductor sector net profit margin reaching 49% by 2027 The trailing 12-month net profit margin for the semiconductor sector reaches approximately 49% by end of 2027, up from a low of ~25% in 2024, as measured by a recognized financial data source (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet, or equivalent industry aggregator). Said 24 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Michael Howell — Global liquidity cycle bottom timing Michael Howell's identified global liquidity cycle bottom occurs in mid-to-late 2027 (approximately July-December 2027), meaning a recognized trough in global liquidity metrics (e.g., CrossBorder Capital's Global Liquidity Index) is dated to that window, and does NOT occur within six months of the episode date (i.e., not before February 2027). Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Mo Gawdat — AI serious impact on jobs beginning 2027 By end of 2027, credible evidence emerges (e.g., major government/institutional reports, significant unemployment data, or widespread industry acknowledgment) of serious, large-scale AI-driven job displacement or workforce disruption beginning in 2027, consistent with Mo Gawdat's prediction. Said 1 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Mo Gawdat — AGI arrival (Mo Gawdat prediction) By December 31, 2027, an AI system exists that is publicly recognized (by a major research institution, industry benchmark, or broad expert consensus) as capable of performing most tasks that humans can do, at a level better than the average human, i.e., AGI as defined by Mo Gawdat has been achieved. Said 1 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Nathaniel Whittemore — SpaceX 1 gigawatt annualized launch capacity rate By the end of 2027, SpaceX achieves (or publicly announces achieving) an annualized rate of launching 1 gigawatt of power capacity into space. Said 10 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Google orbital data center prototype launch Google has at least one prototype orbital data center physically in orbit by December 31, 2027, as confirmed by credible reporting or official Google announcement. Said 14 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Nick Damiano — Mogul secondary market launch Mogul launches a secondary market for its real estate investments by December 31, 2027. Said 17 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Philip Johnston — StarCloud Bitcoin mining ASIC in space StarCloud successfully launches and operates a Bitcoin mining ASIC in space by end of 2027, as confirmed by credible reporting or official announcement. Said 5 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Ric Edelman — 24/7/365 securities trading with T+0 settlement at near-zero cost By December 31, 2027, retail investors in the U.S. can trade securities 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year with same-day (T+0) settlement at virtually no transaction cost, as offered by at least one major regulated brokerage or exchange platform. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Rick Rule — Prospect generators as major sub-theme at 2027 mining conference At the 2027 mining conference (the one Rick Rule references, likely the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium or equivalent annual mining conference), "prospect generators" is featured as a major sub-theme, evidenced by dedicated panels, sessions, or prominent speaker focus on prospect generator companies. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Rory O'Driscoll — Enterprise AI productivity gains measurability by 2027 By end of 2027, major enterprise surveys, analyst reports, or academic studies broadly conclude that measurable, proven productivity gains from AI investments remain elusive or undemonstrated at scale across enterprises, i.e., no consensus evidence of quantifiable productivity improvement attributable to AI spending emerges. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Rowan Jacobsen — Better sunscreens available in US market By end of 2027, at least one new sunscreen product featuring an active ingredient already approved in Europe or Asia (but not previously approved in the US) becomes commercially available for sale in the US market, following FDA approval or regulatory clearance. Said 29 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Ryan Detrick — Micron DRAM and NAND supply-demand tightness beyond 2027 Micron Technology officially states or reaffirms (via earnings call, investor presentation, or press release) that supply-demand conditions for both DRAM and NAND are expected to remain tight beyond calendar year 2027, consistent with the forecast attributed to Micron in this claim. Said 26 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Ryan Sean Adams — US regulatory clarity for tokenized stocks By December 31, 2027, the United States has enacted or formally issued clear regulatory guidance (e.g., legislation signed into law, SEC rulemaking, or equivalent federal regulatory framework) specifically addressing the legal status and trading of tokenized stocks. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Steve Usdin — First FDA approval of a classic psychedelic for depression The FDA approves at least one classic psychedelic (e.g., psilocybin, LSD, DMT, or mescaline) as a treatment for depression by December 31, 2027. Said 4 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Tim Scarfe — ARC-AGI-4 competition launch An ARC-AGI-4 competition (or equivalent next iteration of the ARC-AGI benchmark series) is officially announced and launched/held in 2027. Said 1 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Tom Mueller — Helios first flight Helios (Tom Mueller's rocket/vehicle project) completes its first flight by December 31, 2027. Said 3 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
• Dario Amodei — AI-caused mass unemployment timeline Mass unemployment attributable to AI does not occur before 2028, consistent with Dario Amodei's claim that it will not happen until 2028 or 2029 (after superintelligence is achieved). This resolves FALSE if credible economic data or mainstream consensus identifies AI-driven mass unemployment (e.g., a significant, broadly recognized spike in unemployment causally linked to AI automation) before January 1, 2028, and TRUE if no such event is recognized by that date. Said 13 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 1 Jan 2028
• Pete Buttigieg — US-Iran war ongoing in 2028 Active US military conflict with Iran (as defined by ongoing US combat operations, airstrikes, or declared war footing against Iran) is still ongoing as of January 1, 2028. Said 3 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 1 Jan 2028
• Josh Brown — Hyperscaler AI adoption proof from large corporates By 2028-01-10, major hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon, Google) must have publicly demonstrated, through earnings reports, disclosed contracts, or verifiable revenue data, that large corporations (e.g., JP Morgan and comparable Fortune 500 entities) have rapidly and materially increased AI adoption and spending on hyperscaler AI infrastructure. If no such demonstration is evident by this date, AI infrastructure stocks face significant downside risk per the prediction. Said 10 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 10 Jan 2028
• Dan Biderman — AI-native companies accumulating trillions of tokens of internal proprietary data By January 2028, at least one credible report, case study, or public disclosure documents that multiple AI-native companies have accumulated trillions of tokens (≥1 trillion tokens) of internal proprietary data in their knowledge workspaces. Said 13 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 13 Jan 2028
• Barry Knapp — US Inflation stabilizing at ~2.5% US inflation (as measured by CPI or PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge) does not fall below 2% and instead stabilizes at approximately 2.5% (within a range of ~2.3%-2.7%) by the resolution date, consistent with Barry Knapp's claim that inflation will not go below 2% and will settle around 2.5%. Said 29 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 29 Jan 2028
• David Friedberg — Anthropic $400B annualized revenue run rate Anthropic reaches an annualized revenue run rate of $400 billion (or reports $400 billion in total revenue) by the end of 2027, as stated or reported by Anthropic, credible financial sources, or leaked/disclosed financials. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Jan 2028
• Jason Yanowitz — Rain expansion to 60 markets by end of 2026 and 200 Western Union markets within 18 months Rain is operating in at least 60 markets by December 31, 2026, AND expands to cover all 200 Western Union markets by February 7, 2028 (18 months after the episode date of August 7, 2026). Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 7 Feb 2028
• Lawfare Host — Ransomware cyberattacks on critical infrastructure surge Within 18 months of the episode date (by 2028-02-13), there is a widely reported, significant surge ("flood") of ransomware-type cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, as evidenced by multiple major incidents reported by credible cybersecurity authorities (e.g., CISA, FBI, major news outlets) indicating a notable increase in frequency or severity compared to the baseline at episode date. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 13 Feb 2028
• Nathan Labenz — Autonomous AI capabilities in biological science By February 2028, autonomous AI systems with capabilities comparable to those available in computer science (e.g., autonomous coding agents) are publicly available and widely reported as operational in biological science research workflows. Said 22 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 22 Feb 2028
• High Yield Harry — Private credit compensation peak vs. private equity lag By February 2028 (18 months after the episode date of August 2026), observable evidence emerges, such as industry compensation surveys, layoff announcements, fund closures, or reduced fundraising, confirming that private credit compensation has declined or plateaued relative to private equity compensation, consistent with a structural slowdown in the private credit asset class. Said 24 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 24 Feb 2028
• Ben Carlson — Hyperscaler AI capex spending in 2027 (Morgan Stanley forecast) Hyperscalers (major cloud/AI infrastructure companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) collectively spend approximately $1.1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditure in calendar year 2027, as reported or confirmed by Morgan Stanley or corroborated by public financial disclosures. Said 13 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Chamath Palihapitiya — Social Capital $500M bookings target (2027) Social Capital reports annual bookings of at least $500 million for the year 2027, as stated or confirmed by Chamath Palihapitiya or official Social Capital communications. Said 29 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Christopher Callahan — Global temperature record in 2027 The year 2027 is confirmed as a record-high global mean temperature year (i.e., the hottest year on record) by a major climate monitoring body such as NASA GISS, NOAA, or the WMO by end of 2027 or early 2028. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• David Friedberg — Anthropic 2027 exit ARR Anthropic's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2027 is approximately $500 billion (i.e., reported or credibly estimated exit ARR for 2027 reaches ~$500B). Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Jason Calacanis — Anthropic annual revenue 2027 Anthropic's annual revenue reaches at least $300 million by end of 2027 (i.e., triples from its ~$100 million baseline referenced in the episode), as reported by credible financial sources or Anthropic itself. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Michael Howell — Global real economy expansion through 2027-early 2028 Global real economic output (as measured by a widely tracked indicator such as IMF World GDP growth or the JPMorgan Global Composite PMI) continues to expand, i.e., remains in positive/above-50 territory, well into 2027 and at least through Q1 2028, consistent with Michael Howell's prediction that the worldwide real economy will not peak before that window. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Nathan Labenz — OpenAI full AI R&D researcher milestone OpenAI publicly announces or demonstrates a system capable of functioning as a full AI R&D researcher by early 2028 (i.e., by March 31, 2028), consistent with their stated internal timeline. Said 6 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Combined hyperscaler capex exceeding $1 trillion in 2027 The combined capital expenditure of major hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) for fiscal/calendar year 2027 is reported to exceed $1 trillion USD in aggregate. Said 24 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Neil Dutta — Hyperscaler capex growth rate deceleration The year-over-year growth rate of aggregate capital expenditure among major hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) in 2027 is lower than the year-over-year growth rate recorded in 2026, as reported in their annual financial results. Said 13 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2028
• Beth Barnes — AI autonomous self-improvement capability By 2028-05-04, at least one AI system has been publicly demonstrated or credibly reported to have autonomously improved its own capabilities (e.g., rewriting its own weights, architecture, or training process) without direct human intervention, as confirmed by a peer-reviewed paper, major lab announcement, or credible independent reporting. Said 4 May 2026 · Resolves by 4 May 2028
• Ankur Nagpal — SEC qualified investor test reform The SEC, under its new chair, formally proposes or implements a rule change replacing or substantially modifying the "accredited investor" (qualified investor) standard with a "sophisticated investor" test, i.e., one based on financial knowledge/expertise rather than solely on wealth/income thresholds, by May 5, 2028. Said 5 May 2026 · Resolves by 5 May 2028
• Brian Chesky — Emergence of consumer AI phase By May 2028, there is widely recognized evidence (e.g., major analyst reports, mainstream press coverage, or significant consumer-facing AI product launches from leading tech companies) that a distinct "consumer AI" era has begun, distinct from the enterprise AI phase Brian Chesky described as dominant in May 2026. Said 5 May 2026 · Resolves by 5 May 2028
• Jason Calacanis — AI-generated video indistinguishable from real video By 2028-05-05, AI-generated video is widely recognized (by credible benchmarks, peer-reviewed studies, or broad expert/industry consensus) as indistinguishable from real video, meaning human evaluators in controlled tests cannot reliably differentiate AI-generated video from authentic footage at rates significantly above chance. Said 5 May 2026 · Resolves by 5 May 2028
• Bob Spitz — Bob Spitz access to John Lennon personal archives Bob Spitz publicly confirms or demonstrates (e.g., via a published book, article, interview, or documentary) that he was granted access to John Lennon's personal archives, including scrapbooks, journals, and/or diaries, that had not previously been made public. Said 13 May 2026 · Resolves by 13 May 2028
• Joanna Stern — Bill Gates prediction: LLMs present in all doctor appointments By May 2028, there is credible evidence (e.g., widespread adoption reports, major health system mandates, or Bill Gates publicly affirming the milestone) that LLMs are routinely present/integrated in doctor-patient appointments at scale, consistent with Gates' claim that "no one should sit and talk to a doctor without an LLM being in the meeting." Said 13 May 2026 · Resolves by 13 May 2028
• Andy Constan — AI market / tech stocks 60% further upside before cycle peak A major AI-heavy or broad tech index (e.g., Nasdaq-100 or a representative AI ETF such as QQQ or BOTZ) rises at least 60% above its level as of 2026-05-16 at any point before 2028-05-16, consistent with Andy Constan's claim that the AI bubble could still go 60% higher from current levels before the cycle ends. Said 16 May 2026 · Resolves by 16 May 2028
• Jan Van Eck — Micron top-5 S&P 500 earnings contributor status By 2028-05-22, Micron is no longer ranked among the top 5 earnings contributors in the S&P 500 (i.e., it has dropped out of that group based on reported earnings/profit contribution rankings). Said 22 May 2026 · Resolves by 22 May 2028
• Michael Green — Passive investing market share reaching ~60% threshold Passive investing's share of the U.S. equity market reaches or exceeds 60% (as measured by a recognized financial data source such as Morningstar, ICI, or similar) by 2028-05-27, consistent with Michael Green's stated growth rate of ~4% per year from a base of 53-54% in May 2026. Said 27 May 2026 · Resolves by 27 May 2028
• Daniel Miessler — GitHub as multi-agent infrastructure vs. custom solutions By 2028-05-30, GitHub (as infrastructure for multi-agent systems) is widely regarded by practitioners and industry analysts as the superior or dominant choice over custom-built solutions for building multi-agent AI systems, evidenced by adoption data, major framework endorsements, or consensus commentary in the AI engineering community. Said 30 May 2026 · Resolves by 30 May 2028
• Jason Calacanis — AI token spending driving $4T market cap within 2 years By 2028-06-04, AI token/API spending has reached a scale equivalent to roughly one-third of total engineering salary expenditure globally (or at a major-company level as a recognized benchmark), AND at least one AI-related company or the AI sector collectively achieves a $4 trillion market capitalization outcome attributable to this dynamic, as reported by credible financial or industry sources. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 4 Jun 2028
• Mira Rapp-Hooper — China's approach to Taiwan: political pressure vs. military invasion By 2028-06-04, China has not launched a military invasion of Taiwan, and there is documented evidence of Beijing continuing to pursue diplomatic, economic, or political measures aimed at weakening US commitments to Taiwan (e.g., pressure on US officials, coercive diplomacy, or influence operations targeting the US-Taiwan relationship). Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 4 Jun 2028
• Jason Calacanis — Anthropic & OpenAI equity concession to Bernie Sanders Both Anthropic and OpenAI formally agree to place 10% of their equity into a public investment fund (e.g., an "Invest America" account) as a negotiated concession involving Bernie Sanders, with a public announcement or regulatory filing confirming the arrangement, by 2028-06-07. Said 7 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 7 Jun 2028
• Mark Pincus — LLM token cost becoming essentially free The cost of LLM tokens (as measured by a leading model's publicly listed API pricing, e.g. GPT-4 class or equivalent) falls by at least 95% relative to mid-2024 baseline prices, effectively approaching zero, by June 14, 2028 (the outer bound of "one to two years" from the episode date of June 14, 2026). Said 14 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 14 Jun 2028
• Benjamin Todd — AI capable of performing AI R&D By 2028-06-15, at least one AI system is publicly demonstrated or credibly reported to be capable of autonomously performing meaningful AI R&D tasks (e.g., designing experiments, writing and running code, and producing novel research results) at a level comparable to human AI researchers, as evidenced by peer-reviewed publication, major lab announcement, or independent third-party evaluation. Said 15 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 15 Jun 2028
• Nathan Lambert — US-China open model competitive equilibrium The competitive equilibrium between Chinese and US open-weight AI models (i.e., neither side has achieved a dominant, sustained lead in open model capability benchmarks) remains intact through at least mid-2028, as assessed by major AI benchmark leaderboards and industry commentary. Said 18 Dec 2025 · Resolves by 18 Jun 2028
• Dylan Field — Growth in number of people with "designer" job title By June 2028, the number of people holding the job title "designer" (as measured by a major professional network such as LinkedIn, or a comparable labor market dataset) is larger than it was in June 2026, driven in part by people in non-traditional design roles adopting the title. Said 19 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 19 Jun 2028
• Jim Chanos — AI capital flows to undifferentiated business models By 2028-06-20, there is observable evidence (e.g., significant decline in VC/PE funding rounds, public market de-ratings, or major investor pullback reported in financial media) that capital flows to AI companies with undifferentiated or "mundane" business models have materially decreased compared to 2026 levels, consistent with Chanos's prediction of investor clarity on lack of differentiation. Said 20 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 20 Jun 2028
• Vlad Barbalat — Liberty Mutual total capital under management Liberty Mutual's total capital under management exceeds $120 billion as publicly reported or confirmed by the company. Said 23 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jun 2028
• Mark Pincus — Cost of frontier AI models dropping to $1,000 By 2028-06-25, the cost to train or run a frontier AI model (comparable to top-tier models available as of mid-2026) has dropped to approximately $1,000, as evidenced by credible reporting, pricing announcements, or industry benchmarks showing this cost trajectory ($100,000 → $10,000 → $1,000). Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 25 Jun 2028
• Arthur Hayes — Arthur Hayes financial crisis prediction (larger than 2000 dot-com crash by mid-2028) A financial crisis occurs by mid-2028 (on or before 2028-06-30) that is widely recognized, by major financial institutions, economists, or market metrics (e.g., equity drawdowns, credit events, GDP contraction), as larger in scale or severity than the 2000 dot-com crash. Said 21 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2028
• Arthur Hayes — Arthur Hayes financial crisis and crypto boom prediction by mid-2028 By mid-2028 (on or before 2028-06-30), a financial crisis larger than the 2000 dot-com crash occurs (as evidenced by major market indices falling significantly, widespread institutional failures, or a recognized global recession), followed by large-scale central bank monetary expansion ("money printing") and a subsequent significant rally in cryptocurrency markets. Said 21 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2028
• Nathaniel Whittemore — SoftBank 10 GW US AI capacity target SoftBank has achieved or is verifiably on track to have deployed 10 gigawatts of US AI (data center) capacity by mid-2028 (i.e., by June 30, 2028), as confirmed by official announcements, credible reporting, or SoftBank financial/operational disclosures. Said 8 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2028
• Brian Belski — Starlink competitive broadband pricing threatening legacy last-mile ISPs By 2028-07-03, SpaceX's Starlink is offering residential broadband service at prices broadly competitive with major legacy last-mile providers (e.g., Charter/Spectrum), AND there is documented evidence of material subscriber loss or business deterioration at legacy last-mile companies (such as Charter) attributed to Starlink competition. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 3 Jul 2028
• Jason Yanowitz — Robinhood/Coinbase on-chain trade settlement By 2028-07-03, either Robinhood or Coinbase has publicly launched or incubated a DEX and/or announced that a significant portion of trades settle on-chain (on a public blockchain) rather than on their internal order books. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 3 Jul 2028
• Adam Mosseri — AI compute cost vs. engineer salary parity By 2028-07-09, credible public reporting, industry benchmarks, or statements from major tech companies confirm that the AI compute/API burn rate for a strong software engineer's work is equal to or exceeds the fully-loaded salary/employment cost of a comparable human engineer at at least one major technology company. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 9 Jul 2028
• Avishai Abrahami — Base44 employee headcount growth Base44 has grown to between 800 and 1,000 employees, with the majority being engineers, by July 13, 2028. Said 13 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 13 Jul 2028
• Peter Boockvar — Micron earnings crush due to memory price decline Within 2 years of the episode date (by 2028-07-15), memory pricing enters a down-cycle that causes a material year-over-year decline in Micron Technology's reported earnings (net income or EPS), consistent with a "crushing" of earnings as described by the speaker. Said 15 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 15 Jul 2028
• Peter Boockvar — Japanese institutional repatriation of foreign bond holdings By 2028-07-15, there is documented evidence that major Japanese institutional investors, including the GPIF, have materially reduced their holdings of US Treasuries and/or foreign bonds and repatriated capital to Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), as reported in official GPIF portfolio disclosures, Bank of Japan data, or credible financial news sources, explicitly citing higher JGB yields as a primary driver. Said 15 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 15 Jul 2028
• Shayle Kann — Quantum hardware company consolidation At least 70 of the approximately 85 quantum hardware companies that existed as of mid-2026 have gone out of business (ceased operations, filed for bankruptcy, or shut down) by July 2028, while the quantum computing sector as a whole continues to show signs of vitality (e.g., ongoing investment, surviving leading players, continued R&D activity). Said 16 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 16 Jul 2028
• Casey Newton — OpenAI vs Anthropic token pricing war By 2028-07-17, both Anthropic and OpenAI have each announced at least one reduction in token pricing for their flagship models, with OpenAI subsequently undercutting Anthropic's price on a comparable model tier, i.e., OpenAI's price per token is lower than Anthropic's after Anthropic makes a cut. Said 17 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 17 Jul 2028
• Kevin Roose — Gambling/prediction market ads on cereal boxes A major consumer cereal brand (sold in US grocery stores) features a gambling or prediction market advertisement (e.g., Kalshi or similar) on its physical cereal box packaging by July 17, 2028. Said 17 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 17 Jul 2028
• Nathaniel Whittemore — Mac Mini running Kimi K3-scale model locally By 2028-07-21, a consumer Mac Mini (available at the time) is capable of running a model of comparable scale to Kimi K3 (as of July 2026) locally, evidenced by credible benchmarks, official Apple/third-party documentation, or widely reported demonstrations of such a model running on a Mac Mini. Said 21 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 21 Jul 2028
• Robert Pape — Iran nuclear weapons acquisition Iran has publicly confirmed, or credible intelligence agencies / IAEA have assessed with high confidence, that Iran has acquired or successfully developed at least one nuclear weapon by 2028-07-23. Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jul 2028
• Rory O'Driscoll — Inference providers vertical integration into data centers By 2028-07-23, at least one major inference provider (e.g., Fireworks AI, Together AI, or a comparable pure-play inference provider) has publicly announced or completed a significant capital expenditure commitment (e.g., data center ownership, construction, or long-term lease equivalent to owning) representing a material shift from their prior asset-light model, as evidenced by press releases, funding announcements, or financial disclosures. Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jul 2028
• Rory O'Driscoll — DRAM pricing sharp decline DRAM spot or contract prices fall sharply (a decline of 30% or more from their peak within the period) by July 2028, as reported by industry sources such as DRAMeXchange, TrendForce, or major market trackers. Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jul 2028
• Luke Gromen — US bond crisis response: risk-off episode + de facto yield curve control By 2028-07-28, the Federal Reserve or US Treasury implements a policy widely described by analysts as "de facto yield curve control" (e.g., large-scale, open-ended Treasury purchases explicitly or effectively capping long-term yields), preceded by a notable risk-off episode (e.g., a significant equity market drawdown or credit spread widening), in response to a US bond market crisis. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 28 Jul 2028
• Luke Gromen — US Treasury/Fed backstop of AI-related bond market By 2028-07-28, either the US Treasury or the Federal Reserve has announced or implemented a formal program to guarantee, backstop, or directly purchase bonds/debt instruments tied to AI infrastructure projects (replacing or supplementing the role previously played by Nvidia, SoftBank, or similar private entities in guaranteeing such financing). Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 28 Jul 2028
• Luke Gromen — De facto yield curve control adoption By 2028-07-28, a major central bank (e.g., the Federal Reserve, ECB, or Bank of England) implements a policy that functions as yield curve control, explicitly capping or targeting long-term government bond yields through open-ended purchases, even if not officially labeled "yield curve control," as evidenced by credible financial reporting or official policy announcements. Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 28 Jul 2028
• Tian Yang — Oil structural bull market driven by China reserve repurchases The price of Brent crude oil is higher on 2028-08-02 than on 2026-08-02, AND there is documented evidence of China conducting significant strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) repurchases during the intervening two-year period (2026-08-02 to 2028-08-02), consistent with a structural bull market narrative. Said 2 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 2 Aug 2028
• Akemi Tsunagawa — Japan as Bespoke's hottest market Bespoke publicly identifies Japan as its top/hottest market (by revenue, growth, or explicit company statement) through at least August 2028, with no other market surpassing Japan in that period. Said 3 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 3 Aug 2028
• Harry Stebbings — Airtable annual revenue reaching $600M Airtable reports or is credibly reported to have achieved $600 million or more in annual revenue by mid-2028 (i.e., approximately two years from the episode date of 2026-08-06). Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 6 Aug 2028
• Fei-Fei Li — Significant progress in embodied AI and robotics By August 2028, there is widely recognized, significant progress in embodied AI and robotics (e.g., commercially deployed general-purpose robots, major capability breakthroughs reported by leading research institutions or industry, or comparable milestones), consistent with Fei-Fei Li's prediction that meaningful advances would arrive on a ~2-year horizon from mid-2026, not within 12 months. Said 10 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 10 Aug 2028
• Paul Frambot — 30-year fixed-rate bonds on-chain No tokenized 30-year fixed-rate bond product is launched or made available on a public blockchain by August 10, 2028 (i.e., the prediction holds true if zero such instruments appear on-chain within two years of the episode date). Said 10 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 10 Aug 2028
• Patrick Gray — Court case interpreting LLM commands in AI agent felony By 2028-08-12, at least one court case has been publicly reported in which a central legal dispute involves interpreting the intended command or instruction given to a large language model (LLM) as part of an AI agent's commission of a felony on a user's behalf. Said 12 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 12 Aug 2028
• David Friedberg — New data center power sources By 2028-08-14, the majority (>50%) of newly built large-scale data centers announced or commissioned globally are powered primarily by natural gas rather than renewable energy sources, consistent with Friedberg's claim that gas is the only viable option at scale within 1-2 years. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 14 Aug 2028
• Jason Yanowitz — SEC/CFTC crypto rulemaking as price catalyst By August 2028, both the SEC and CFTC have advanced significant crypto-specific rulemaking (e.g., finalized rules, proposed frameworks, or formal guidance on digital asset jurisdiction/trading) without the CLARITY Act being enacted, AND a major crypto market index (e.g., total crypto market cap or Bitcoin price) is materially higher than at episode date, attributable in part to regulatory clarity. Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 14 Aug 2028
• Josh Brown — Retail investor interest in AI ecosystem ETFs By August 2028, retail investor interest in AI ecosystem ETFs has measurably faded, as evidenced by declining net inflows, falling assets under management, or reduced trading volumes in major AI-themed ETFs (e.g., BOTZ, ROBO, AIQ, CHAT) compared to levels at the time of the prediction (August 2026). Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 14 Aug 2028
• Nathan Grubaugh — Krypton chloride excimer lamp price drop to ~$100 At least one commercially available krypton chloride (KrCl) excimer lamp (222 nm UV) is offered for sale at or below $100 USD per unit from a legitimate supplier, without requiring bulk orders that would be inaccessible to typical buyers, by 2028-08-16. Said 16 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 16 Aug 2028
• Dario Amodei — AI as top issue in 2028 US presidential election AI is ranked as the most important issue (or among the top issues) by a major national poll or post-election analysis of the 2028 US presidential election, indicating it was the dominant policy concern for voters. Said 13 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Nov 2028
• Akshat Rathi — Oil price recovery below $70/barrel post-Hormuz closure The price of oil (Brent crude) falls below $70 per barrel at any point on or before December 31, 2028, indicating a return to pre-war levels. If it does NOT fall below $70 by that date, the prediction is confirmed true. Said 4 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Ankur Crawford — Global AI compute investment overcapacity by 2028 By end of 2028, cumulative global AI compute infrastructure investment reaches approximately $3 trillion, and credible industry analysts, economists, or major financial institutions publicly characterize this level of deployment as overcapacity (i.e., supply of compute significantly exceeds demand). Said 14 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Arthur Hayes — Bitcoin $1M via yield curve control intervention By December 31, 2028, a major central bank (e.g., the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, or ECB) announces or implements a large-scale yield curve control (YCC) program, AND Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $1,000,000 USD at any point during or shortly after that intervention. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Arthur Hayes — GPU financing depreciation financial stress By end of 2028, there are publicly reported significant financial problems (e.g., defaults, write-downs, restructurings, or credit stress events) attributable to GPU financing depreciation schedules at one or more major AI infrastructure lenders, lessors, or borrowers. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Barbara Sugg — ROWE Extended Day-Ahead Market Launch The ROW (Regional Organization for Western Energy) extended day-ahead market goes live (i.e., begins live market operations) by the end of 2028, as scheduled from the mid-2026 announcement. Said 25 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Daniel Kokotajlo — AI companies dominating global market cap rankings by 2028 By December 31, 2028, the majority of the world's top 5 largest companies by market capitalization (or equivalent valuation metric) are primarily AI companies (i.e., companies whose core business is developing or deploying AI systems). Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Daniel Kokotajlo — AI company data center spending vs. US military budget By end of 2028, the combined annual capital expenditure on data centers by AI companies (e.g., Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, etc.) exceeds the total annual US military budget for the same year. Said 7 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Dario Amodei — Full automation of AI research (Dario Amodei's 50% probability estimate) By the end of 2028, AI systems are capable of fully automating AI research, meaning AI can independently conduct the full cycle of AI research (hypothesis generation, experimentation, analysis, and publication-quality output) without meaningful human involvement, as assessed by credible expert consensus, major lab announcements, or peer-reviewed benchmarks confirming this milestone has been reached. Said 13 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Darrell Duffie — Fed reserve balances falling to $1.07 trillion by 2028 The Federal Reserve's reserve balances do NOT fall to $1.07 trillion (or below) at any point by the end of 2028, as predicted by Darrell Duffie. This resolves TRUE (prediction correct) if reserve balances remain above $1.07 trillion through end of 2028, and FALSE if they reach or drop to $1.07 trillion by that date. Said 5 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Elad Gil — California exit tax introduction California enacts or formally introduces (passes through at least one legislative chamber or is signed into law) an exit tax targeting residents who leave the state, by end of 2028. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Gavin Baker — AI data center power shortage alleviation By end of 2028, credible industry reports, analyst assessments, or major hyperscaler/data center operator statements indicate that the power (watts) shortage constraining AI data center buildout has begun to alleviate, evidenced by metrics such as reduced power procurement lead times, increased available capacity, or easing of power-related construction bottlenecks. Said 20 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Harry Stebbings — DRAM/NAND fab capacity glut and Anthropic compute order cuts By end of 2028, new DRAM/NAND fab capacity comes online coinciding with Anthropic visibly reducing or cutting compute/chip orders, contributing to a cyclical downturn in the memory/semiconductor market. Said 14 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Harry Stebbings — Airtable $300M free cash flow Airtable generates at least $300 million in free cash flow within the fiscal year ending approximately two years from the episode date (i.e., by end of 2028), as reported by Airtable or credible financial sources. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Jordan Schneider — Maanshan nuclear plant restart The Maanshan (Maan) nuclear power plant has restarted operations (i.e., resumed power generation or received regulatory approval to resume operations) by December 31, 2028. Said 30 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Mo Gawdat — 30% job displacement in some sectors by 2028 By the end of 2028, credible labour market data or widely cited research shows that at least 30% of jobs in one or more identified sectors have been eliminated (net job losses attributable to automation/AI or structural change), consistent with Mo Gawdat's claim. Said 1 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Pete Buttigieg — Sam Altman prediction: AI intellectual capacity exceeds human by end of 2028 By December 31, 2028, Sam Altman (or OpenAI) publicly claims or confirms that the world's AI/computational intellectual capacity residing inside data centers equals or exceeds that outside of them (i.e., human intellectual capacity), consistent with Altman's stated prediction. Said 3 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Philip Johnston — StarCloud space-based data center ramp-up By end of 2028, StarCloud has begun ramping up its space-based data center operations to compete with terrestrial data centers, evidenced by announced commercial service launches, customer contracts, or operational capacity deployments targeting the terrestrial data center market. Said 5 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Ryan Sean Adams — US SEC regime change turning hostile to tokenization platforms By approximately 2028, a change in US presidential administration or SEC leadership results in the SEC adopting an enforcement-first, hostile stance toward tokenization platforms, including filing lawsuits or enforcement actions against platforms for non-compliance with securities regulations. Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Sebastian Mallaby — AI recursive self-improvement by 2028 By the end of 2028, at least one leading AI frontier model is publicly documented to have autonomously designed, trained, or substantially coded its own successor frontier model without significant human-directed architectural intervention, representing a recognized milestone of recursive self-improvement in AI development. Said 17 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Steven Bartlett — Humanoid robots surpassing humans at surgery or cleaning By end of 2028, at least one humanoid robot system is demonstrated or commercially deployed that demonstrably outperforms human professionals at either surgical procedures or cleaning tasks, as evidenced by peer-reviewed studies, major industry benchmarks, or credible mainstream reporting confirming superior performance. Said 28 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Dec 2028
• Patrick O'Shaughnessy — AI investment "air gap" risk By mid-2029, there is documented evidence of a significant contraction in AI infrastructure investment (e.g., major hyperscaler or AI lab capex cuts, widespread funding pullback, or high-profile AI infrastructure bankruptcies) attributed to insufficient AI revenues failing to sustain the investment cycle, consistent with the "air gap" scenario described. Said 18 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 18 Feb 2029
• Tushar Jain — US legislative window to enshrine financial/digital privacy norms By approximately 2029-02-19 (~1000 days from the episode date of 2026-05-19), the US Congress has passed and the President has signed into law at least one significant piece of legislation enshrining privacy as a legal norm for law-abiding individuals (e.g., a federal digital privacy bill, crypto privacy protections, or equivalent statutory right to financial privacy). Said 19 May 2026 · Resolves by 19 Feb 2029
• Jason Yanowitz — Large non-crypto companies issuing tokens in the US By February 2029, at least one large, established non-crypto company (with significant existing revenue and distribution) has publicly issued a token in the United States as part of its capital stack or go-to-market strategy, under a regulatory framework permissible by the SEC. Said 20 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 20 Feb 2029
• Marc Andreessen — Large-scale data center capacity availability Large-scale data center capacity (hyperscale / AI-grade) remains unavailable or severely constrained for new customers/projects until at least late 2028, meaning no significant new large-scale capacity comes online and becomes broadly accessible before that window (i.e., the supply constraint persists through mid-2028). Said 29 May 2026 · Resolves by 31 Mar 2029
• Jasmine Sun — Dario Amodei's prediction: AI producing software/therapy without human engineers By 2029-05-13, AI systems exist that can autonomously produce large-scale software or therapy services without requiring human engineers or equivalent human professionals to direct or execute the work, as publicly confirmed or demonstrated by Anthropic or credible third-party evidence. Said 13 May 2026 · Resolves by 13 May 2029
• Alex Kendall — Robotaxi scale deployment vs. personal L4/L5 vehicles By 2029-05-15, robotaxi services operating at meaningful commercial scale (e.g., thousands of vehicles across multiple cities without safety drivers) exist, while personally owned L4/L5 autonomous vehicles are NOT available for consumer purchase at scale. Said 15 May 2026 · Resolves by 15 May 2029
• Jason Calacanis — Delta vs United high-speed in-flight internet gap By 2029-06-13, Delta has not yet rolled out high-speed Starlink (or equivalent) in-flight internet across its fleet at a scale comparable to United's free, frictionless Starlink offering that United launched circa mid-2026, meaning Delta remains approximately 3 years behind United in fleet-wide high-speed in-flight internet availability. Said 13 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 13 Jun 2029
• Nikesh Arora — G&A headcount reduction due to AI By mid-2029, credible empirical evidence (e.g., large-scale workforce surveys, BLS data, major analyst reports, or multiple Fortune 500 disclosures) shows that headcount in G&A functions (marketing, finance, HR) at companies has been reduced by approximately 50% on average relative to 2026 levels, attributable to AI/automation adoption. Said 22 Jun 2026 · Resolves by 22 Jun 2029
• Shayle Kann — US gas capacity additions 2027-2028 Annual US natural gas power capacity additions in both 2027 and 2028 (or the combined 2027-2028 total) come in at approximately 10-15 GW, as reported by EIA or equivalent authoritative source. The condition is met if the combined two-year total is ≤30 GW (i.e., averaging ≤15 GW/year) and ≥20 GW (averaging ≥10 GW/year). Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2029
• Shayle Kann — US ELCC-adjusted solar and battery additions 2027-2028 ELCC-adjusted solar and battery capacity additions in the US total approximately 20 GW or less across the 2027-2028 period (i.e., roughly 10 GW/year on an ELCC-adjusted basis), as predicted by Shayle Kann, and this figure falls materially short of the pace of data-center power buildout over the same period. Said 9 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jun 2029
• Shayle Kann — Solar geoengineering development by multiple entities By 2029-07-01, at least three or four distinct entities (universities, companies, or hybrids) beyond the current leading actor(s) have publicly developed and announced their own solar geoengineering programs, technologies, or deployment options. Said 1 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 1 Jul 2029
• Donald Hoffman — Hoffman's Markov chain observer model deriving relativistic time dilation By 2029-07-02, Donald Hoffman or his collaborators publish a peer-reviewed paper or formal preprint demonstrating that a Markov chain observer model with counters mathematically derives or directly implies time dilation as described in Einstein's special/general relativity. Said 2 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 2 Jul 2029
• Donald Hoffman — Donald Hoffman's eight mathematical conjectures By 2029-07-02, Donald Hoffman and his collaborators have published proofs (or formal disproofs) of at least one of the eight specific mathematical conjectures he referenced, in a peer-reviewed or publicly verifiable form. Said 2 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 2 Jul 2029
• Brian Belski — Russell/S&P/MSCI technology sector reclassification At least one of Russell, S&P, or MSCI announces or implements a restructuring/breakup of the technology sector in their index classification systems (e.g., GICS, ICB, or equivalent) by 2029-07-03. Said 3 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 3 Jul 2029
• Brad Gerstner — Frontier AI capability gap widening over 2-3 years By mid-2029, credible independent benchmarks, research publications, or widely-cited industry analyses show that the performance gap between frontier AI models (e.g., from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic) and non-frontier models on complex agentic tasks has widened rather than narrowed compared to the gap observed in mid-2026. Said 11 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 11 Jul 2029
• Jason Yanowitz — Tens of thousands of companies building on Ethereum By 2029-07-17, tens of thousands of companies (i.e., at least 10,000 distinct companies) have verifiably set up operations or deployed products on the Ethereum network, as evidenced by credible industry reports, on-chain analytics, or major research publications. Said 17 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 17 Jul 2029
• Fred Turner — AI API costs relative to engineer salary By July 2029, companies are spending 2-5x a software engineer's annual salary on Anthropic (or equivalent frontier AI) API costs per engineer, up from approximately 3.8% of salary as of mid-2026. This is confirmed by credible industry surveys, analyst reports, or company disclosures showing AI API expenditure per engineer in that range. Said 18 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 18 Jul 2029
• Patrick Hsu — ARC billion perturbed single-cell profiles milestone ARC (Arc Institute or related initiative led by Patrick Hsu) publicly announces or publishes evidence of having generated at least one billion perturbed single-cell profiles across more than 100 cell types. Said 21 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 21 Jul 2029
• Ryan Sean Adams — Tokenized asset market cap reaching $1 trillion The total tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market capitalization reaches or exceeds $1 trillion USD by July 2029, as measured by widely cited trackers such as RWA.xyz, 21.co, or equivalent industry sources. Said 23 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 23 Jul 2029
• Luke Gromen — Gold price reaching $6,500 The spot price of gold reaches or exceeds $6,500 per troy ounce at any point on or before 2029-07-28, as reported by a major financial data source (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, or LBMA). Said 28 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 28 Jul 2029
• Shayle Kann — C&I battery project transaction costs reduction Transaction costs for commercial & industrial (C&I) battery storage projects fall approximately 90%, from ~$200/kWh to ~$20/kWh, primarily driven by AI and agentic tooling, as reported by industry sources, analysts, or market data by July 2029. Said 30 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 30 Jul 2029
• Jesse Zhang — Enterprise AI deployment infrastructure commoditization By 2029-07-31, enterprise AI model deployment infrastructure (e.g., orchestration, integration, and agent-building tooling) is widely recognized as commoditized, evidenced by major analyst reports, significant price compression, or leading vendors publicly describing the space as a commodity. Said 31 Jul 2026 · Resolves by 31 Jul 2029
• Harry Stebbings — US restrictions on Chinese open-source AI models By 2029-08-03, the United States has enacted or enforced at least one law, executive order, or binding regulation that restricts access to or use of Chinese open-source AI models (e.g., DeepSeek, Qwen, or similar) within the US. Said 3 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 3 Aug 2029
• Viktor Shvets — AI infrastructure investment growth Global AI infrastructure investment (e.g., data centers, chips, networking) in 2028 is higher than in 2025, as measured by at least one major industry report or analyst firm (e.g., IDC, Gartner, McKinsey), indicating continued growth through the 2-3 year window from the episode date. Said 6 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 6 Aug 2029
• Ryan Greenblatt — AI misalignment becoming "really concerning" by ~2029 By 2029-08-11, there is widespread expert consensus, major institutional acknowledgment (e.g., from leading AI labs, governments, or prominent AI safety organizations), or a concrete documented incident indicating that AI misalignment poses a serious, imminent real-world risk, consistent with Ryan Greenblatt's characterization of the situation as "really, really crazy and concerning from a misalignment perspective." Said 11 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 11 Aug 2029
• Michael Howell — Gold-oil ratio mean reversion (oil outperforms gold) The gold-oil ratio (price of gold divided by price of oil) declines materially from its level as of 2026-08-13, indicating oil has outperformed gold, consistent with a mean reversion analogous to the post-COVID period. Specifically, the ratio must fall by at least 30% from its August 2026 level by the resolution date. Said 13 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 13 Aug 2029
• Grant LaFontaine — Whatnot car sales launch Whatnot launches a car sales feature or category on its platform, allowing users to buy/sell cars via the service, by 2029-08-19. Said 19 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 19 Aug 2029
• Jason Calacanis — Apple built-in dictation vs. dedicated AI dictation tools By August 2029, Apple's native dictation feature reaches 70-80% of the quality of dedicated AI dictation tools such as Willow and Voit, as evidenced by independent benchmarks, head-to-head reviews, or widely cited user/expert assessments showing Apple's dictation is competitive at that level, leading to measurable commoditization (e.g., significant decline in paid dictation tool subscriptions, market exits, or major analyst commentary on commoditization of the segment). Said 21 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 21 Aug 2029
• Jerry Murdock — Neocloud market consolidation At least half of the Neocloud companies that exist as of August 2026 will have shut down, been acquired, or otherwise ceased operating as independent Neoclouds by August 2029. Said 22 Aug 2026 · Resolves by 22 Aug 2029