Who is Ben Carlson?

The Goldman Sachs paycheck-to-paycheck survey uses an unusually weak definition, finding it tough to make progress on long-term financial goals, which explains why 40% of earners above $500,000 qualify.

“Living paycheck to paycheck means I find it tough to make progress on any long-term financial goals.”

Ben Carlson explains that AI-driven job displacement follows a slow-burn pattern, with the true reckoning arriving during recessions when laid-off workers simply are not rehired, using the historical disappearance of travel agents as the template.

“He shows the decline of travel agents over time and he said it's like kind of a slow burn but it really happens during recessions that's when you see this massive waterfall of travel agents going away and I think that's going to be what happens the next recession that's going to be the big tell when you're going to have people who have big layoffs and they don't get hired back that's when you're going to know like okay this is the industry These are the industries that are really impacted here.”

The US dollar strengthened throughout most of the 2010s and inflation was not materially higher than in the 1980s and 1990s, contradicting widespread predictions of dollar collapse and runaway inflation under zero rates and QE.

“The dollar was stronger throughout most of the 2010s and we and inflation wasn't that much higher than it was in the 80s and 90s.”

Reported happiness in the US held roughly stable from 1972 to 2018, then dropped sharply after the pandemic and has not recovered.

“Then never to be recovered ever again.”

Ben Carlson's book 'Risk and Reward' features 52 charts per chapter, produced with help from Chartr, positioned as an unusually data-visual financial book

“There's never been a better book for charts and tables than this book. I counted cuz Chartr had me help me. >> Wait, say it again. That's that's a bold claim. There's 50 >> There's 52 charts >> charts in every chapter in the book.”

Ben Carlson argues that investing only in the US while ignoring the rest of the world is irrational.

“The idea that I'm just going to invest in the US and not the rest of the world is nuts.”