What is Social Security?
Social Security
Social Security is a U.S. federal social insurance program administered by the Social Security Administration that provides retirement, disability, and survivors benefits, and handles enrollment in Medicare. Commentary in 2026 focused on its financing outlook and the political risk that efforts to shore it up could spill over into markets and government spending.
How it developed
- May 2026 - Jan Van Eck said payments will be cut 20% in the early years of the program’s shortfall.
- Jun 2026 - Ben Carlson said the program’s trust fund ratio will drop to 83% by 2034.
- Aug 2026 - Ben Carlson said enough people worry about a coming crisis that politicians may overreact by cutting Social Security or Medicare to get ahead of it.
- Sep 2026 - Bob McNally said oil companies’ biggest risk is a far-left populist government that plugs holes in Social Security and Medicare, takes control of those companies, and goes after their cash.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
Social Security projected to cover only 83% of promised benefits by 2034.
“By 2034 it will drop to 83%.”Ben Carlson · 24 Jun 2026
The biggest political risk for U.S. oil companies is not climate regulation but a far-left government seizing assets to fund social programs, analogous to Venezuela under Maduro.
“I said, "Your biggest risk, the oil companies, is you get a far left populist democratic government that tends to plug holes in our social security and Medicare. I think that'll be the reason it won't be climate change." And they will take control of those companies and then go after that cash as the government in Venezuela did, as Maduro did and so forth.”Bob McNally · 8 Sep 2026
Bob McNally's contrarian warning to oil companies about their real political risk, drawn from the Venezuela analogy.
“I said, "Your biggest risk, the oil companies, is you get a far left populist democratic government that tends to plug holes in our social security and Medicare. I think that'll be the reason it won't be climate change." And they will take control of those companies and then go after that cash as the government in Venezuela did, as Maduro did and so forth.”Bob McNally · 8 Sep 2026
The real danger from US debt anxiety is not a market crisis but political overreaction, specifically politicians cutting Social Security or Medicare to pre-empt a perceived crisis that may never arrive.
“There are enough people who are worried about this beingcoming a crisis that it politicians will overreact and they'll cut Social Security or they'll cut Medicare or they'll do something to try to get ahead of this.”Ben Carlson · 26 Aug 2026
Friedberg says the US is already de facto socialist, with close to 50 percent of Americans employed by government, contracting for it, or living on government transfers.
“It is deacto socialism when the government employs roughly 1/ half of the people of the United States. Right now, if you look at all the federal, state, local agencies, so the people that are employed, the people that are contractors of those agencies, and then the people that live off of some sort of government pension or social security system, the total amount is close to 50% of Americans.”David Friedberg · 31 Aug 2026
Social Security payments face a projected 20% cut in the early 2030s if no legislative action is taken.
“Payments will be cut 20% in the early.”Jan Van Eck · 22 May 2026