What is Micron?

Micron executives forecast the memory market will be undersupplied for at least the next year, with gross margins expanding to 86% in Q4.

“Micron executives said that they expect the memory market to be under supplied for at least the next year, forecasting that gross margins will expand to 86% in Q4.”

Micron expects supply-demand conditions for both DRAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar year 2027.

“We now expect supply demand conditions for both DRAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar 2027.”

Micron and Nvidia together accounted for 45% of total S&P 500 earnings growth in the measured period.

“45% of the entire S&P 500's growth was from Micron and Nvidia.”

Boockvar explains the memory pricing trap: volume demand for memory keeps rising but pricing falls in DRAM cycles, compressing Micron earnings even as unit demand grows.

“The demand for memory will continue to go up at infinitum but the pricing typically goes down and you can be sure in the next couple years. This DEM cycle will reverse the volume demand will continue up but the pricing will go down and you will see a crushing of Micron's earnings.”

Samsung reported completing a 16-stack 3D DRAM (VS-CAT) at a May 2024 conference, while a Samsung EVP attributed an 8-layer 3D DRAM stack to Micron.

“In May 2024, a Samsung EVP reported at a conference that they completed a 16-stack 3D DRAM - which they called then Vertically Stacked Cell Array Transistor or VS-CAT style.”

Micron is posting 80 to 85 percent gross margins on HBM memory, signaling severe AI-driven supply constraint.

“Micron producing numbers where they have 80 85% gross margins.”

Micron is flagged as a near-term earnings risk as the DRAM cycle turns and memory pricing declines offset continued volume growth.

“The demand for memory will continue to go up at infinitum but the pricing typically goes down and you can be sure in the next couple years. This DEM cycle will reverse the volume demand will continue up but the pricing will go down and you will see a crushing of Micron's earnings.”

Micron achieved the fastest transition from $500 billion to $1 trillion market cap of any company in history, measured in trading days.

“Trading days between 500 billion and1 trillion dollar market cap. Micron is the fastest in history.”

Jan Van Eck predicts Micron will not remain a top 5 S&P 500 earnings contributor within 24 months, flagging memory as cyclically vulnerable unlike Nvidia.

“What if I said which one of these won't be on here in 24 months? Micron. very >> five years 10 years micron.”