What is Nvidia?

On ChatGPT launch day, SK hynix was the only HBM3 supplier for the Nvidia GPUs the world suddenly needed.

“Thusly on November 30th, 2022 - the day of ChatGPT's release - there was just one company providing the high-performance HBM3 critical for the Nvidia GPUs that everyone suddenly wanted: SK hynix.”

Jonathan Thomas on the circular AI capex financing risk.

“Take that example times a thousand and everybody's lending andor equity investing in everyone else's projects and the concern is when the music stops all these people go for the chairs and a lot of people going to be left without a chair because some of those funding commitments are going to vanish as though they were a vapor.”

Dara Khosrowshahi on why Uber will stop hiring engineers and instead buy agents and GPUs.

“Maybe 5 years from as the engineers get more and more productive, I may not decide to add engineering headcount because at that point, instead of adding an engineer, I should add agents and buy some more GPUs from Nvidia.”

NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Super and Ultra are being pre-trained using FP4 precision, a first publicly disclosed use of FP4 for pre-training and a potential inflection point for compute efficiency in large model training.

“These days, you know, we're pre-training our Neotron 3 Super and Ultra models using FP4, which is a thing that, you know, h hasn't been done publicly anyway.”

Jonathan Thomas explains how NeoCloud companies create a circular AI financing loop, with Nvidia financially backstopping GPU purchases by firms whose backing capital may itself be contingent or sourced indirectly from Nvidia.

“I start a Neocloud. I say I am building a data center. I have money from Saudi Arabia and maybe the Norwegians and everybody private equity Apollo's in blah. So, I'm gonna build this data center and I'm going to start my own NeoCloud. Jensen Wang calls and says, "I heard the news. I think it's great. We would like to sell you GPUs." Y and by the way, we will financially backs stop those purchases. You don't have the capital yet. We know you're good for it because we see that you have all this backing and therefore Nvidia is going to book that chip sale to me and I'm either using money that indirectly comes from them or I'm backstopping that to raise money from someone else.”

Energy's share of the S&P 500 is ~3% today, but the commodity super-cycle thesis requires it to rise to 10-15%, implying a massive reallocation out of AI/tech.

“You look at energy is a share of the S&P. It runs around 3%. And by the way, the core of the super cycle argument is that share needs to be closer to 10 to 15 and you got to take it out of the all of that AI sector. meaning the video is way overvalued as a market cap relative to everything else and energy hard assets and metals are undervalued.”

The world's first diamond-cooled server was an Nvidia H200 GPU.

“In fact, the world's first diamond cooled server was an Nvidia H200.”

Nvidia raised $20 billion in its first capital market issuance since 2021.

“Nvidia, to your point, first time since 2021 they're raising $20 billion.”

Nvidia product specs for B300 and beyond show FP4 delivering only 3x the throughput of FP8, short of the 4x that quadratic scaling of matrix multiply hardware would predict.

“Nvidia's product specs have started acknowledging that in B300 and beyond, where the FP4 is three times faster than the FP8. Though it should be 4x.”

Micron and Nvidia together accounted for 45% of total S&P 500 earnings growth in the measured period.

“45% of the entire S&P 500's growth was from Micron and Nvidia.”