Neolab valuations lack the revenue base to sustain them, and GPT/Astra-class frontier models signal the era of neolabs is ending.

Neolab valuations lack an LLM-scale revenue stream to support them, making valuation collapse severe once market belief deteriorates.

“There's no massive revenue stream like the LLM revenue stream to support the company and the valuation today. So once belief goes, it can be quite scary down there.”

Astra represents a discontinuous capability step, the first time OpenAI had a major version bump worthy of being called GPT-6.

“The first time that we actually had this almost discontinuous step on in a way that we could have predicted.”