US inflation is stuck in a 3.5–4.5% range with upside risk, well above the Fed's 2% target.

Biden-era inflation peaked at approximately 9.5% annualized, the highest rate in about 48 years.

“Under the Biden administration, we had inflation, I think, at 9 12% annualized. That's the highest rate in about 48 years.”

Inflation will remain in a 3.5%-4.5% range with upside risk until Fed rate hikes force it down, implying persistent above-target inflation in the medium term.

“Until then, we're going to be in this three and a half to four and a half range with some upside risk.”

A series of external shocks, including AI, tariffs, and oil price increases, took inflation back up after it had landed in early 2025.

“You've had this series of external shocks, whether it be AI or tariffs or oil price increases. And that's taken inflation right back up.”