Dalrymple estimates his remaining ~5% p(Doom) splits across scenarios including Malthusian collapse and warring AI coalitions.

Despite severe reward hacking incidents, the US and China will knowingly fail to durably solve alignment due to geopolitical competition.

“Both the US and China are like, 'Whoa, we have these crazy reward hacking incidents. We basically know that we haven't remediated them in a way that would actually solve the underlying problem and durably solve it, but we're in this insane geopolitical race.”

David Dalrymple assigns a 1% probability to a Malthusian collapse scenario where solar farms outcompete agriculture for land, leading to human extinction.

“One of my 5% is like 1% chance that there's just a Malthusian collapse of economic activity that results in humans being just out brutally outco competed for space and food.”