Anthropic and OpenAI are each expected to exceed $30 billion in annual revenue in 2026, driven by usage-based pricing.

Anthropic's revenue growth rate will slow considerably next year and it will not reach $1 trillion in revenue.

“I think Anthropics growth rate is going to slow considerably next year. And it's been obviously on a tear. there's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year.”

OpenAI's growth rate has accelerated to over 20% month-over-month over the past two months after pivoting to coding, implying a 10x annualized growth.

“Over the past 2 months, that growth rate is now over 20% month over month, which if you extrapolate it out over 12 months would be a 10x growth.”

OpenAI can afford model training by generating modest margins on trillions of dollars of inference revenue, rather than requiring high margins on training itself.

“We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high margin business to be able to afford model training. Like so much of our future compute plans will be used to sell inference to customers >> that even if we can enjoy a modest margin on trillions of dollars of revenue, we can go afford to train some.”

Anthropic's ARR grew from $10B at the start of the year to over $70B mid-year.

“They started the year at 10 billion of ARR. They're now over 70 billion of ARR.”

All frontier AI companies will compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.

“All of these companies are going to compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.”

Jake Paul's growth fund holds investments in tier one tech companies including SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Andal, Etched, and Cognition.

“A lot of the tier one names, maybe all the tier one names. but andal, etched, cognition, spacex, open AI, anthropic.”

Anthropic will end 2026 with an annualized revenue run rate between $100 billion and $120 billion.

“Will end the year between a hundred and $120 billion dollars.”

Anthropic's revenue will at best triple next year to $300-$400 billion.

“I think maybe they could, you know, triple get to three or 400 million.”

As of approximately May 2026, total GLP-1 drug revenue was greater than the combined total revenue of all AI labs.

“Up until I think 3 months ago right GLP1's like total revenue was more than all of the AI labs put.”

Top customers of frontier AI labs, including Lovable and ElevenLabs, have moved on from purchasing API access to building their own models.

“All of their best customers and I talked to them whether it's lovable or 11 labs or the startups that were spending hundreds of thousands of dollars with them every quarter just last you know six months ago they have all moved on making their own models.”

Major frontier-model customers Lovable and 11 Labs are each building proprietary vertical models to eventually replace frontier labs.

“Both of them said that they're working essentially on their own models.”

Anthropic's data retention policy decisions are poorly timed ahead of an IPO and will negatively impact Anthropic's revenue figures.

“Cannot think of a more disastrous set of decisions to make ahead of an IPO. the reaction to data policies alone will show up in their revenue figures to say nothing of cost control measures.”