AI is expected to reduce G&A headcount (marketing, finance, HR) by roughly half within three years at enterprise companies.

In the steady state, dev teams will be cut by 30-40% as a trade-off for $100k per-engineer AI token budgets.

“I think it'll land at 100 grand per engineer equivalent. I think that's what we'll I think we'll give each of our best engineers $100,000 of tokens and in return we'll cut the size of our dev teams 30 40% effectively.”

Bending Spoons is acquiring software companies, cutting 80% of staff, and making the remaining 20% AI-first employees to unlock existing revenue.

“They get rid of 80% of the employees and then put the 20% who are left as AI first employees and they figure out how to get all of this incredible revenue.”

AI tools now let a single contributor do data analysis work in a Hex thread that would have taken an Amazon L7 a week or two.

“You can call data now on a hex thread that is basically what it would take a week, two weeks with an Amazon L7.”

Current-generation AI models are capable of handling every back-office task at Curative; deployment speed is the only remaining constraint.

“Today the current gen models can do every back office task we have at curative it's just a matter of deploying them.”

Mass unemployment due to AI will not occur until 2028 or 2029, after superintelligence is achieved.

“The mass unemployment doesn't happen until 2028 or 2029 after they already have super intelligence.”

Instagram has created a new role called 'product staff' that is an evolution of the PM, capable of doing tasks traditionally done by designers, data scientists, and researchers using internal AI tools.

“One we call product staff which is sort of an evolution of the PM. So a PM who can do some of what a designer does and some of what a data scientist does and some of what a research does leveraging the latest tools that we have for them.”

Demand for accounting is expected to increase by one or two orders of magnitude due to growing economic complexity driven by AI agents.

“I kind of suspect that demand for accounting was going to go up by probably a couple orders of magnitude.”

Stripe's strategic response to AI-driven productivity gains is to build more products rather than reduce headcount.

“Our belief is that it's just an opportunity to I'm being a little cheeky, but build everything.”

The number of job openings for software coders has increased year-over-year, contradicting the narrative of AI-driven job destruction.

“There are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago.”

Software jobs have not declined despite coding agents because as model taste increases, you need even higher taste people to steer them effectively, and this dynamic will remain true for the considerable future.

“Despite coding agents if anything there are like more software jobs like the number of software jobs has increased not decreased despite the capabilities of coding agents because fundamentally you need very high taste as models get higher taste you need even higher taste people to be able to steer them effectively. And I foresee that being true for the considerable future.”

In a world with widespread robotics, drones, and AI, DoorDash will have more human Dashers doing deliveries in 10 years than it does today.

“My prediction actually is in a world where robotics, drones, AI is everywhere. my guess is that in 10 years time, we're actually going to have more Dashers doing deliveries, not less.”

The widely-predicted 50% loss of white-collar jobs to AI has not materialized within the two-year window that was claimed.

“Everybody's saying 50% of white collar people are going to lose their jobs. Here we are two years later they said within [clears throat] two years and you know, employment still growing, people are hiring, we need more AI literate people.”