What is VIX?
VIX
The VIX is a market gauge of implied equity volatility, tracked as a signal of investor fear or complacency. Commentary in 2026 focused on the gap between the index’s level and realized volatility, and on how low readings can be misread as safety rather than danger.
How it developed
- Jun 2026 - Michael Batnick noted that new highs in the market had come alongside higher VIX prints.
- Sep 2026 - Dean Curnutt said the VIX stood around 16.5 to 17 while one-month realized volatility was about 9, a wide spread that could suggest the VIX was too high relative to realized.
- Sep 2026 - Curnutt attributed the depressed realized volatility to unprecedented levels of realized correlation, saying he could not explain why stocks were so uncorrelated.
- Sep 2026 - Curnutt said the Fed and the IMF misread the VIX of 10 in late 2006 as a sign of safety when it was a sign of danger.
- Sep 2026 - Curnutt argued that most real tail events force a government response, with the government’s sole objective becoming getting the VIX down, as in 2008 and 2020.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
Why low realized correlation mechanically suppresses index vol: when top S&P 500 stocks move independently their individual volatilities cancel out at the index level, making the VIX optically cheap even as single-stock vol is high.
“What's holding down realized V is as we were saying at the top of the call, never seen before levels of realized correlation, right? Why are those stocks so uncorrelated? Boy, I just I just don't know. I wish I did, but I can say definitively what that's doing.”Dean Curnutt · 16 Sep 2026
VIX was approximately 16.5 to 17 while one-month realized S&P 500 volatility sat at roughly 9, a historically wide vol risk premium spread.
“The VIX is at 16 and a half or so 17 real one month realized V is nine. That's a big spread. In fact you could argue that the VIX is too high relative to realized.”Dean Curnutt · 16 Sep 2026
The Fed and IMF misread a VIX of 10 in late 2006 as a safety signal when it was actually a danger signal, suggesting low vol readings can be systematically misinterpreted by institutional monitors.
“Even the Fed, even the IMF, they misread the VIX of 10 in late 2006 as this sign of safety while it was everything that related to a sign of danger, right?”Dean Curnutt · 16 Sep 2026
Dean Curnutt on governments fighting financial wars to suppress the VIX in tail events.
“That's the other part is most of these real tale events necessitate government response and the government at some point its only objective is to get the VIX down. It's almost fighting a financial war not an economic war and that was the case in 2020 2008 and certainly the case in 2020 as well.”Dean Curnutt · 16 Sep 2026
Michael Batnick on new S&P 500 highs arriving with elevated volatility since the pandemic.
“New highs have come with higher VIX prints.”Michael Batnick · 3 Jun 2026