What is Treasuries?
Treasuries
Treasuries are U.S. government debt obligations, and the material tracks how market participants are reassessing their pricing and their role as a safe-haven asset. Commentary through mid-to-late 2026 centers on whether the long end of the curve is being repriced and whether the historical crisis reaction function still holds.
How it developed
- Jun 2026 - Bob Sheehan said term premium is returning as a factor that matters to the long end of the curve.
- Jun 2026 - Sheehan dismissed the view that fiscal conditions will drive the dollar to zero, calling it unrealistic.
- Aug 2026 - Adam Taggart said the usual crisis reaction of buying dollars and Treasuries is no longer happening.
- Sep 2026 - Henrik Zeberg said bonds and Treasuries look very mispriced because they are too cheap at this point.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
Adam Taggart on the dollar and Treasury safe-haven reaction function breaking down.
“The reaction function to any crisis was, you know, people buy dollars, they buy treasuries. That's not happening anymore.”Adam Taggart · 19 Aug 2026
Term premium is re-emerging as a meaningful driver of long-end Treasury yields, reversing a decade-long trend in which it was largely absent.
“I think we're bringing back kind of this new thing where term premium is going to matter to the long end again.”Bob Sheehan · 29 Jun 2026
Henrik Zeberg on bonds being mispriced
“Bonds, you know, you know, treasuries and so on looks very mispriced, but that's because they're too cheap at this point here.”Henrik Zeberg · 16 Sep 2026
The dollar collapsing to zero from fiscal stress is not a realistic macro scenario because currency valuation is relative and structural demand for Treasuries persists.
“There's some people in macro who are kind of like oh the dollar is going to fall to zero because of this fiscal and the only way to do it is to value like I don't think that's a realistic way to view the world.”Bob Sheehan · 29 Jun 2026