What is Polymarket?
Polymarket
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Commentary around it has centered on the odds its markets assign to geopolitical and macroeconomic outcomes, and on how concentrated trading activity is.
How it developed
- May 2026 - Ryan Sean Adams noted the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose 8% in a week, from 20% to 28%.
- May 2026 - Adams cited a 53% market-implied chance of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30.
- May 2026 - Michael Batnick said 67% of activity goes to just 0.1% of accounts.
- Sep 2026 - Laura Shin was skeptical that derivative contracts on Polymarket would extend to hedging by ice cream sellers.
- Sep 2026 - Tarek Mansour said his platform is 10 times larger than Polymarket in volumes.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
Polymarket odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 jumped 8 percentage points in one week, from 20% to 28%.
“This has led to a increase in the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026 up 8% this week. It started the week at 20%. It is now at 28%.”Ryan Sean Adams · 15 May 2026
Polymarket odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026 reached 53%, up 14 percentage points week-over-week.
“The odds of a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by June 30th, which man that's coming right up. We're almost there. It's 53%.”Ryan Sean Adams · 8 May 2026
On Polymarket, 67% of profits go to just 0.1% of accounts, revealing extreme concentration among prediction market traders.
“67% of go to just 0.1% of accounts.”Michael Batnick · 6 May 2026
Laura Shin dismisses the idea that prediction-market derivatives will attract real-world hedgers like ice cream sellers.
“We had a guest on last week talking about derivative contracts on poly market and ice cream sellers hedging their risk. That's not going to happen.”Laura Shin · 9 Sep 2026
Kalshi claims to be 10x larger than Polymarket by trading volume.
“We're 10 times larger than them in volumes.”Tarek Mansour · 1 Sep 2026