What is Patriot?

Patriot and THAAD interceptor stockpiles are down 60% with no substitute systems available.

“The Patriots, the THAADS, those are down by 60% and there are no substitutes.”

Deterrence is perceptual: even if a munitions shortfall has limited operational impact, it matters whether adversaries and allies perceive it as weakness they can exploit.

“Deterrence is perceptual. So, while operationally it might not matter if we don't have enough Patriot reloads, as many as we'd like in Okinawa or wherever they are in the Pacific, that ultimately it is how your adversary is perceiving you and whether they see weakness or not and think that they can exploit it.”

Ground-based interceptor stockpile losses may matter less for a Pacific war because red teams target radars first, rendering the interceptors irrelevant regardless of quantity.

“I don't think the defensive interceptors are as important for the Pacific because at least for the Patriots and the Thads because in every war game I've been in, the first thing that the red team hits is the radars. So the stock piles don't really matter.”

The US lacks enough Patriot and THAAD interceptors to neutralize drone threats at a Middle East strait, making the strait militarily unclearable even at 100% intercept success.

“Even if our ability to shoot them down is 100%, we still don't have enough of them.”