Who is Mohnish Pabrai?
Mohnish Pabrai is an investor and author known for his value investing approach inspired by Warren Buffett. The material tracks his investment philosophy, including the importance of patience, simplicity, and skepticism of complex models.
Track record
- Mar 2026 - Pabrai stated that even Warren Buffett has only a 4% hit rate on investment decisions, as only 12 out of 400 mattered.
- Mar 2026 - Pabrai said the key to Buffett’s success was not the buy decision but never selling.
- Mar 2026 - Pabrai recommended treating Berkshire Hathaway as the index and dollar-cost averaging into its Class B shares.
- May 2026 - Pabrai advised against using Excel, listing it as one of his 10 Commandments of mental models.
- May 2026 - Pabrai argued that an investment thesis should be explainable to a 10-year-old in four sentences.
- May 2026 - Pabrai predicted that cash holdings at Berkshire Hathaway would be half or less of current levels within five years.
On the record
What named speakers have said about Mohnish Pabrai.
Mohnish Pabrai on Warren Buffett's surprisingly low hit rate on investments that actually mattered.
“The god of investing has a 4% hit rate.”Mohnish Pabrai · 25 Mar 2026
Warren Buffett made at least 400 investment decisions, but only 12 materially moved the needle, implying a roughly 4% hit rate on impactful bets.
“Buffett's made at least 400 investment decisions. He's saying 12 are the ones that mattered. The god of investing has a 4% hit rate.”Mohnish Pabrai · 25 Mar 2026
Mohnish Pabrai on his prohibition against spreadsheet-driven investing.
“One of my 10 Commandments of mental models is thou shall not use Excel.”Mohnish Pabrai · 22 May 2026
Pabrai's rule that every investment thesis must be explainable in four sentences to a 10-year-old serves as a filter against complexity and rationalization.
“If you cannot explain your investing thesis to a 10-year-old in about four sentences so that 10-year-old can understand it, at the end of the day every investment has to be very simple.”Mohnish Pabrai · 22 May 2026
Buffett's edge came not from superior stock picking but from never selling his winners, making the hold decision more important than the buy decision.
“It wasn't the buy decision. The buy decision is important. The important thing was they never sold.”Mohnish Pabrai · 25 Mar 2026
Mohnish Pabrai on the psychological trap that prevents investors from acting at market bottoms.
“When the time comes to buy, you won't.”Mohnish Pabrai · 25 Mar 2026
Mohnish Pabrai on his mental model warning investors against constantly chasing new positions.
“The mistress is always hotter than the wife.”Mohnish Pabrai · 22 May 2026
Mohnish Pabrai on why hyperactive markets are good for value investors.
“The more hyperactive the better it is for me.”Mohnish Pabrai · 22 May 2026
Pabrai argues that AI will not allow non-technical employees to self-build enterprise software, dismissing displacement of incumbent SaaS platforms like Workday as a near-term pipe dream.
“The idea that Betsy and HR is going to fire up some AI software, whatever, and develop her own software and get rid of Workday or whatever else they're using in HR is just a pipe dream.”Mohnish Pabrai · 22 May 2026
Mohnish Pabrai recommends dollar-cost averaging into Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares as a superior default to an index fund, given Buffett's capital allocation track record.
“I would treat Berkshire Hathaway as the index. So, I would just say the default currently is you put it, you know, dollar cost average into the into Berkshire Class B shares, right?”Mohnish Pabrai · 25 Mar 2026