What is gold?
gold
Gold is a precious metal often discussed as a safe-haven asset and compared to Bitcoin during geopolitical conflicts such as the Iran war.
How it developed
- May 2026 - Andrew Perry said gold against the 30-year is making lower highs.
- Jun 2026 - Francis Hunt said gold had setups along the way and topped out at 5,600.
- Jun 2026 - Michael Howell said if the oil-gold ratio sticks at 20 and gold is underpinned at $4,000–$5,000, oil could go to $200.
- Jun 2026 - Michael Oliver said the dollar is irrelevant to gold.
- Jul 2026 - Dan Held said he thinks Bitcoin will eventually flip gold, probably at least 10 to 15 years away.
- Aug 2026 - Wellum said gold went up to 5,500 but companies were still priced around mid-3,000s to $3,500, while gold trades around $4,300. He also said central banks now hold gold as their largest reserve asset, over and above the US dollar.
- Aug 2026 - Luke Gromen said gold at a high enough rate doesn’t destroy the Treasury market; it collateralizes it. He noted that in Q2, central bank gold buying went back to all-time highs, and gold is now a bigger share of FX reserves than dollars. He also said if you bought gold instead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in May 1929, you’d still be up 15% 103 years later.
- Aug 2026 - Adam Taggart said gold finally beat its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980, which it hadn’t done in 45 years, and that we’ve had a period where stocks down, bonds down, gold up. He also said central banks have doubled their purchase of gold and are starting to bring it home.
- Aug 2026 - Jack Farley said if you want to know how this ends, price gold, oil, and anything else that’s a hard asset in yen because this is the playbook.
- Aug 2026 - David Woo said the rally over the last few weeks has been driven by the news of Chinese buying.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
In 8 of the last 10 months, gold was the US's largest export by value, surpassing pharmaceuticals, jet engines, and oil.
“In the last 10 months, eight of those 10 months, gold has been the US's number one export. Bigger than pharmaceutical preparations, bigger than jet engines, bigger than oil.”Luke Gromen · 23 Jul 2026
Gold was the US's number one export in 8 of the last 10 months, surpassing pharmaceuticals, jet engines, and oil.
“In the last 10 months, eight of those 10 months, gold has been the US's number one export. Bigger than pharmaceutical preparations, bigger than jet engines, bigger than oil.”Luke Gromen · 23 Jul 2026
Luke Gromen on gold and the Treasury market: not destruction but collateralization.
“Gold at a high enough rate doesn't destroy the Treasury market. It collateralizes it.”Luke Gromen · 20 Aug 2026
Gold has surpassed its 1980 inflation-adjusted all-time high for the first time in 45 years of bull markets.
“We're talking about gold finally beating an inflationadjusted peak that it last beat in 1980. All the bull markets in gold for the last 45 years haven't been able to better that inflation adjusted peak. We just did.”Adam Taggart · 19 Aug 2026
Luke Gromen explains China's reserve strategy: the goal is not yuan replacing the dollar but gold replacing the Treasury bond as the neutral global reserve asset.
“We don't want the yuan to replace the dollar. We want gold to replace the treasury bond as neutral reserve asset.”Luke Gromen · 23 Jul 2026
Gold corrected roughly 30% from peak to trough over six months, yet large speculators still held nearly half of the entire gold futures market and small speculators sold zero contracts.
“Large speculators, they're still holding almost half of that entire market. Small speculators, they didn't sell a single contract.”Erik Townsend · 23 Jul 2026
Despite a roughly 30% six-month correction in gold, large speculators held almost half the market and small speculators did not sell a single contract, showing unusually sticky bullish conviction.
“Large speculators, they're still holding almost half of that entire market. Small speculators, they didn't sell a single contract. Their positioning is basically unchanged. Through the whole correction, nobody left.”Luke Gromen · 23 Jul 2026
Luke Gromen explains China's reserve strategy: the goal is not yuan replacing the dollar but gold replacing the US Treasury bond as the neutral reserve asset.
“We don't want the yuan to replace the dollar. We want gold to replace the treasury bond as neutral reserve asset.”Luke Gromen · 23 Jul 2026
Central bank gold buying returned to near all-time highs in Q2 2026 after a subdued Q1.
“In the calendar second quarter, gold buying went back to basically all-time highs by central banks.”Luke Gromen · 20 Aug 2026
Adam Taggart on gold finally surpassing its 45-year inflation-adjusted peak.
“We're talking about gold finally beating an inflationadjusted peak that it last beat in 1980. All the bull markets in gold for the last 45 years haven't been able to better that inflation adjusted peak. We just did.”Adam Taggart · 19 Aug 2026